The RISP Mystery

In this Baseball Prospectus article, I continue my analysis of batting with runners in scoring position. Unsurprisingly--given pitcher quality, fielders' positions, and several other factors--batters hit more singles with runners in scoring position. They hit more doubles, too. And more triples. And they walk more. And the strike out less. All good. Except...they also hit fewer homers. That doesn't apply just to good hitters and bad hitters, it's across the board. Batters hit home runs less frequently with runners in scoring position than without. I explore various explanations without a definite answer in the article. 

Trailing 30 - May 30

Here is an analysis of the hottest and coldest teams and players over the past 30 days. Comment of the week: The Phillies and White Sox have suddenly gotten cold, and the Dodgers and Brewers have suddenly gotten hot.

The Under-The Radar Team Adjustments

My latest Baseball Prospectus article is here. I look at three teams that have changed sharply from 2015 to 2016 in ways that aren't well-reported:

• The Washington Nationals have gone from a team that hits a lot of balls to the opposite field to one that rarely goes the other way.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have gone from one of the most free-swinging teams to the team that swings the least frequently in the majors.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates' pitchers have gone from being one of the stingiest at allowing home runs to one of the most homer-prone.

Enough Already

On Tuesday, the Pirates destroyed the Diamondbacks, 12-1. But the game featured some serious ugliness towards the end. In the top of the seventh, the Pirates were leading 9-1. Arquimedes Caminero, who's exhibited only passing knowledge of the strike zone so far this year (13 walks, three hit batters, and a wild pitch in 17.1 innings), came on for the Bucs. He got center fielder Chris Owings to ground out but then gave up back-to-back singles to shortstop Nick Ahmed and Jake Lamb. Then, with runners on first and second and the count full, he hit second baseman Jean Segura in the head with a 96 mph fastball. 

In the bottom of the inning, Evan Marshall, who'd faced two batters in the sixth, gave up singles to second baseman Josh Harrison and shortstop Jordy Mercer. Catcher Chris Stewart grounded out, with the runners advancing to second and third. Marshall's first pitch to third baseman David Freese, a 95 mph fastball, hit him, either on the shoulder (Pirates broadcast) or grazing his uniform (Diamondbacks broadcast).

In the top of the eighth, Caminero still on the mound, catcher Wellington Castillo walked, left fielder Yasmany Tomas struck out, pinch hitter Chris Herrmann forced Castillo, and then Owings singled. With runners on first and third and the count 1-2, Caminero hit Ahmed in the head with an 89 mph split-fingered fastball.

A notes about this: First, this occurred the day after Pirates pitcher Ryan Vogelsong was hit in the head with a 92 mph fastball thrown by Colorado's Jordan Lyles. Vogelsong's now on the disabled list with broken facial bones. So it's not like nobody was aware of the risks here. 

Second, it's pretty clear that Caminero didn't intend to hit Segura or Ahmed, and certainly not in the head. It's not so clear about Marshall, who has a history if ill-advised retaliation. 

Third, it's fortunate that Segura and Ahmed are both OK..

Fourth, I was glad that neither the Pirates nor the Diamondbacks TV announcers talked about "protection" or any other Book of Exodus eye-for-an-eye nonsense. Nobody was making excuses for this sort of thing.

All that being said...Enough already. Pirates pitchers have hit opposing hitters 19 times this season, the fourth most in the league. Pirates batters have been hit 31 times, the most in the league. Last year, they hit the most batters (75) and were hit the most (89). In 2014, they hit the most batters (88) and were hit the second most (78). In 2013, they hit the most batters (70) and were hit the most (88). From 2013 to 2016, they've hit 252 batters (15% more than any other National League team), and been hit 286 times (20% more than any other NL team).

As I've pointed out (here and here), some of this may be retaliation for prior hit batters, but a lot, maybe most of it, isn't. But that doesn't make it OK.

Look, I get it. Hit batters are part of the game. Sometimes a pitch gets away from the pitcher. Some batters stand really close to the plate. Pitchers need to be able to pitch inside as well outside, and sometimes they miss. That's all understandable and forgivable. 

What isn't understandable and forgivable to me is intentionally hitting a batter with a pitch. If I intentionally throw a hard object at high speed and hit you, it's criminal battery. Hard contact is part of the game if you're playing football or hockey, and the players dress appropriately. It's not supposed to be part of the game of baseball. Throwing at a batter because he flipped his bat or slid hard or because his team's pitcher hit a batter on the other team isn't just dumb moral equivalence, it's dangerous. Baseball can wait until a player gets killed, or suffers a traumatic brain injury, or is otherwise never able to play again because he's hit by a pitch. (I'd say "or suffers permanently decreased performance" but that's already happened.) Or it can do something now.

First thought: Immediately eject any pitcher whose pitch hits a batter in the head. I think Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale had it right when he said after the game against Pittsburgh, "You know what, when guys get hit in the head and they get hit in the face, there's no place for that in the game. And if the guy is not trying to do it, then he shouldn't be here at this level." I know some have called for ejecting any pitcher who hits a batter, but that could lead to batters leaning in, getting grazed by the pitch, in order to get an ace pitcher out of the game. Nobody's going to lean in with his chin. 

Second thought: Give umpires more latitude to eject pitchers who throw at batters. Granted, a lot of hit batters are in a gray area. But some aren't, like the Pirates-Reds HBPfest on May 11, in which a Red hit a Pirate, then a Pirate hit a Red, then a Red hit a Pirate, it happened again, then a Pirate hit a Red and a Red hit a Pirate. 

Some people will say that that's the way the game's governed itself for over a century and it shouldn't change. Sorry, not buying it. The average fastball velocity so far this year is 92.3 mph; that can do a lot more damage than fastballs of Ty Cobb's and Babe Ruth's and Joe DiMaggio's eras, so it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Besides, the game went for decades with no nonwhite players on the field. That wasn't a good idea. Until 2014, baseball didn't bother enforcing the interference rule, prohibiting fielders from blocking the baserunner's path the base, at home plate. That wasn't a good idea either. If governing itself means that Ryan Vogelsong gets bones broken in his face one day and has Jean Segura getting tested for a concussion the next, I'd say it's a pretty pathetic job of self-governance. Roll back the historically high trend of hit batters now, baseball, before you have to, with regrets.

Art Discovered, Found, Lost

Here is my latest at Baseball Prospectus. It's an examination of "the lost art out of the two-out RBI," a term I heard for the first time over the weekend. The clever title is not mine, because I'm not that clever.

Trailing 30 - May 23

Here is my Trailing 30 post from Monday this week. I'm going to continue linking to the Banished to the Pen version rather than reproduce it here because it's in an easier-to-read format over there--the editor there is better than the one here!

Next Up: The Arizona Diamondbacks

The Pirates wrap up a ten-day homestand--the longest of the season, along with ten straight at home in early September--with three games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They took two out of three against the Diamondback in April in Arizona despite being outscored 24-21. This is the last time the teams will meet this season.

How Are They Doing Lately? Arizona's 11-16 over the past 30 days, the third worst record in the National League. The Pirates's 15-10 is the league's fifth best record. Arizona's scored 4.7 runs per game (fourth in the league; the Pirates are second at 5.0) and given up 4.9 per game (the second most in the league; the Pirates have given up the third most at 4.7. By their run differentials, the Pirates should've won two fewer games and the Diamondbacks should've won two more. In any case, Arizona enters play at 21-25, fourth in the West, 6.5 games behind the Giants.

What's Going Right? Offense. Over the last 30 days, they're third in the league with a .276 batting average and .444 slugging percentage and fourth with a .336 on base percentage. That's been supported by an unsustainably high .330 batting average on balls in play, and they hit a lot of balls (51%, second most in the league) on the ground--hard to get an extra-base hit on a ground ball--but they're made more hard contact than any team in the league.

What's Going Wrong? Pitching. The starters' ERA is 4.42, fourth highest in the league over the last 30 days, and the relievers' ERA of 4.98 is worse than any team but the execrable Reds. The team's stranded only 71% of baserunners, the fifth worst in the league. They've been good at getting opposing batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, getting swings at a second-best-in-the-league 33% rate, but they've been challenged to find the zone in the first place, with a league-worst 46% rate.

Who's Hot? Rookie Brandon Drury, who's split his time between left, right, and third, has been the team's best hitter over the past 30 days, with a .318/.348/.561 slash line and leading the team with six home runs. Third baseman Jake Lamb, who plays only against right-handed pitchers, has hit .259/.344/.506, and Wellington Castillo has been one of the top-hitting catchers at .325/.353/.488. Backup catcher Chris Herrmann, acquired in an offseason trade with the Twins, has been a folk here, batting .370/.412/.739 in 52 plate appearances over the past 30 days.

On the mound, the top two starters over the past 30 days have been Rubby de la Rosa (2-1, 2.03 ERA in four starts) and Zack Greinke (4-1, 4.20 ERA over six starts). Setup man Daniel Hudson has a 1.74 ERA in eleven games and 10.1 innings over the past 30 days, and Jake Barrett has a 1.80 ERA in eleven games and 10 innings, along with 12 strikeouts and no unintentional walks. 

Who's Not? Many Diamondbacks fans would say that first baseman Paul Goldschmidt's .244 batting average over the past 30 days is a disappointment, but I'm more inclined to focus on his .421 on base percentage and .444 slugging percentage, both well above average. The only really bad hitter's been shortstop Nick Ahmed (.190/.242/.250), who's in there for his glove, not his bat. The bullpen, other than Hudson and Barrett, have a 5.98 ERA over the last 30 days, and starters Shelby Miller and Robbie Ray have combined for a 2-7 record and 5.56 ERA over eleven starts.

What's the Outlook? The two teams combined for an average of 15 runs per game in April. Expect a lot of runs this time around, too. The Pirates are the better team, and have better pitchers (Liriano-Locke-Cole) starting than Arizona (Miller-de la Rosa-Corbin).

Catchup

I know, posting's been light here. I've been writing a fair amount on other sites and I've been remiss in not posting it here. Here are some links.

On May 2, I wrote about Quality Starts as Baseball Prospectus. A lot of people deride quality starts, which are defined as a starting pitcher going six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs. I conclude that quality starts are, in aggregate, very well-pitched games. Scroll down to the end of the article for an enlightening comparison.

On May 12, also at Baseball Prospectus, I explored whether there are some hitters who consistently perform better with runners in scoring position. Short answer: It doesn't seem that way. Longer answer: Try flipping a coin six times.

On May 16, I wrote about the Pirates' and Reds' proclivity for hitting one another's batters with pitches at Baseball Prospectus. They do it a lot, but there's not a lot of evidence that it's a case of eye-for-an-eye retribution (though 2016 may be different).

On May 17, I initiated my Trailing 30 feature for 2016 at Banished to the Pen. Among other things, I found that as of that date, there were three Pirates starters among the bottom five for ERA over the past 30 days.

Next Up: The Chicago Cubs

First one of these of the season! Let's get right into it.

How Are They Doing Lately? They dropped two straight to the Padres. The Cubs suck.

OK, just kidding. Put it this way: The Pirates are tied for the tenth best record in baseball and the fifth best record in the National League. They are second in their division. But the trail the first place team in their division, the Cubs, by seven games. In the National League East, the fourth-place Marlins are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the National League West, the last-place Padres are closer to first than the Pirates are. In the American League East, the last-place Yankees are as close to first as the Pirates are. In the American League Central, the fourth-place Tigers are only half a game further from first than the Pirates are. In the American League West, the last-place Angels are only a game farther from first than the Pirates are.

The Cubs have the best record in baseball. They're scored the most runs per game. They've given up the fewest. They've scored, on average, three more runs per game than their opponents--no other team's outscored by more than 1.7--and, based on their run differential, they should be a game better than their 25-8 record. They've been really, really good. Don't take my word for it - Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs concur. And, of course, the Cubs swept three games at PNC Park a week and a half ago by a combined score of 20-5.

What's Going Right? Over the past 30 days, they're sixth in the league with a .263 batting average and .430 slugging percentage but first in on base percentage at .367. They've walked in 13% of plate appearances, by far the most in the league, and struck out in only 19%, the fourth lowest. They're last in the league at generating ground balls and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. They're disciplined and good. On the mound, over the last 30 days, their starters' ERA of 2.06 is the best in the league by far, and the starters have the league's fourth highest strikeout rate, third highest ground ball rate, third highest rate of soft contact allowed, and the lowest rate of both hard contact and home runs as a percentage of fly balls. They've been a little lucky, allowing an unsustainably low .256 batting average on balls in play and an unsustainably high 82% of baserunners left stranded, but even with average figures, they'd be good.

What's Going Wrong? When the starters are going as well as the Cubs' have, there's a limited need to go to the bullpen--Cubs relievers have pitched the fewest innings in the league over the past 30 days--but Chicago's bullpen's been mortal, with a 4.20 ERA, sixth highest in the league, hurt by a high walk rate (13%, highest in the league) and too many fly balls leaving the park (18%, third highest). Cubs relievers have only five saves over the past 30 days, tied for the second fewest in the league, but that's more a reflection of the team's margin of victory, which doesn't create save opportunities.

Who's Hot? Oh, everybody, more or less. The team's getting above-average offensive performance from all four infield positions and left and center field. Three of the five starting pitchers have an ERA below 2.00 over the last 30 days (the Pirates will face all three) and the other two, John Lackey and Kyle Hendricks, are at 2.76 and 3.10, respectively. Closer Hector Rondon has been pretty untouchable over the past 30 days, allowing four hits, one run and no walks while striking out fourteen over ten innings.  

Who's Not? Over the last 30 days, backup catcher David Ross, pressed into service by an injury to Miguel Montero, is hitting .179/.300/.359, but with very strong defense. The biggest bust has been free agent signee Jason Heyward, batting .205/.307/.250 and still looking for his first home run of the year. The relievers other than Rondon has had either a high ERA or peripherals (high walk and/or home run rates) that suggest that their ERAs should be higher.

What's the Outlook? In the Cubs series of May 2-4, the Pirates never led, not even for an inning, as they were mowed down by the Cubs' bats and starters Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, and Jon Lester. This time, they travel to Chicago, and they'll face...Hammel, Arrieta, and Lester. Am I expecting another sweep? No, but I'm not optimistic. The Cubs are good.

Bucs Update: April

The Pirates finished April with a record of 15-9. While that trailed the best-in-the-majors Cubs by three games in the National League Central, it's still a good record: Fourth best in the National League, fifth best in the majors overall. The only teams that were better are the Cubs at 17-5, the Nationals at 16-7, the Mets at 15-7, and the White Sox at 17-8.

That's better than last year, when the Pirates finished the month at 12-10, third in their division, fifth in the league, eleventh in the majors. It's worth noting that after April 30 last year, the Pirates were 86-54, the best record in the majors.

Now, April's not the most important month. In fact, per this article of mine in Baseball Prospectus, it's the least predictive month of the season. By the same token, the trends that've emerged in April need to at least be monitored.

How did they get to 15-9? Well, there are a couple overall comments. First, they team's been a little lucky, but just a little. Based on its April run differential of 128 runs scored and 109 allowed, we'd expect a record a game or so worse. Second, they haven't played a particularly tough schedule so far. Through the end of April, they'd played only four games against teams playing better than .500, going 1-3 against Detroit, while running up an 14-6 record against Arizona, Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee, San Diego, and St. Louis (the Cardinals were exactly a .500 team in April). That'll change tonight when they fact the Cubs, who did not play a single .500-plus team in April, facing Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado, the LA Angels, and Milwaukee.

Yet it doesn't feel like the team's been one of the best in the league, does it? Let's compare how they Pirates arrived at this year's 15-9 vs. last year's 12-10. I'm going to show you three tables, indicating how the Pirates did this year vs. last year in April. For each statistic, I'll show the raw number as well as where the team ranked in the 15-team National League. For ranks with an asterisk, it means that the lower the statistic, the better (e.g., ERA).

First, offense:

The offense has been a lot better than last year. The Pirates are fourth in the league in scoring and lead in both batting average and on base percentage. Note that they've cut way down on strikeouts and are getting way more walks, in each case moving from one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. Like last year, opposing pitchers aren't throwing them a lot of pitches in the strike zone (Zone %) but the batters are much less likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone (Chase %). Also, while the team's power ranking (isolated slugging, which is equal to slugging percentage minus batting average) hasn't moved up much, the raw number has. As Travis Sawchik pointed out over the weekend, the team's benefited from seeing more pitches. They won't stay this hot, but the offense looks strong.

One exception: Andrew McCutchen was the worst batter in the Pirates' starting eight during April, posting a .226/.339/441 slash line. But considering that he hit .194/.302/.333 in April last year, one of the worst performances in the league, then went on to be one of the top hitters in the game for the remainder of the season, it seems premature to worry.

In my preview for the team's 2016 season, I identified starting pitching as a key area of concern. Has that been borne out?

The starters have undoubtedly been worse. Their ERA is higher, and their FIP (fielding-independent pitching, a measure that's scaled like ERA but takes into account only strikeouts, walks, and home runs) has gone from best in the league to among the worse. They're striking out fewer hitters, walking more, and not lasting as deep into the game. Most worrisome to me is the chase percentage. When pitchers get opposing batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone, it means that they're fooling hitters and, more often than not, inducing weak contact. The Pirates starters got a lot of batters to chase last year. They're not this year. If hitters lay off pitches outside the zone, they can tee off on the resulting pitches in the zone. This is a concerning trend that I'll monitor. I'm still worried about the rotation.

How about the bullpen, long a Pirates strength, but off to a slow start this year?

Well, the bullpen isn't the dumpster fire it was when I wrote the post referenced above, but it hasn't been good, and it started May with its fourth loss of the year. This is my biggest worry for the Pirates. The offense won't stay this good, but it's a good unit. The starters aren't a great bunch, but they're OK, and there are probably reinforcements on the way. But a bad bullpen? This is new, and it's disconcerting. Last season, the Pirates had nine relievers who threw at least 25 innings, and of them, all but one had an ERA below 3.00. (And the one who was above, Arquimedes Caminero, was at a not-bad 3.62). This year, of the eight Pittsburgh relievers with at least five innings pitched so far, only one's below 3.00 (and that one, Mark Melancon, isn't below by much, 2.61). They're still getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone, but they've backslid in all the components of FIP--they're allowing more home runs and walks and getting fewer strikeouts. Absent pretty marked improvement, the team is going to be challenged to hold onto late leads and overcome late deficits.  

Is this whining about a good team? Perhaps. But remember, that 15-9 record came against teams that, by and large, have struggled this year. In May, the team has six games against the Cubs and three each against the Cardinals and Rangers. That's a tougher slate than the team faced in April. Some things, especially the bullpen, need to get better in order to maintain this hot start.