Next Up: Last Chance to Win the National League Central

Top of the National League Central, morning of September 28, one week left in the season:

Team        W  L Pct.  GB
St. Louis  98 58 .628  --
Pittsburgh 95 61 .609   3
Chicago    90 65 .581 7.5

I think we can be fairly confident in saying two things:

1. By taking two of three against the Cubs over the weekend, the Pirates have probably wrapped up home field for the wild card play-in.
2. If the Pirates are going to catch the Cardinals--who finish their season against the execrable Atlanta Braves, while the Pirates play the almost-as-execrable Cincinnati Reds who nonethless have a 10-6 record against Pittsburgh--they need to sweep the next three games at home against St. Louis.

I'd forgotten about this, but do you know how the baseball tiebreaker rules could hose the Cardinals and Pirates? In the NFL, there are all sorts of convoluted measures (won-lost within the division and conference, point differential, net touchdowns, among others) that determine the seeding if two teams finish with identical records. In baseball, they just play another game. Let's say the Pirates sweep St. Louis and then each team wins two of three this weekend. They'd be tied for first with identical 100-62 records. They would then be required to play a game in Pittsburgh next Monday to determine the division champion, with the loser hosting the Cubs on Wednesday for the wild card game. That would put the losing team, which would be the team that currently has the best or second-best record in baseball, at a significant disadvantage, as they would be playing full-bore baseball, not resting regular hitters or pitchers, for seven straight games. The Cubs could rest regulars and would have a day off on Monday.

(One thing a tie wouldn't do is mess up the teams' rotations as it did last year, when the Pirates burned Gerrit Cole in the last game of the season in a vain attempt to catch the Cardinals, leaving Edinson Volquez to get lit up in the wild card game (five runs allowed in five innings) against 2014 postseason force of nature Madison Bumgarner. This year, if the teams are tied and they have to play a game Monday, it looks to me as if the Pirates would go with Cole (18-8, 2.60 ERA) on Monday and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs Wednesday. The Cardinals would go with Michael Wacha (17-6, 3.15 ERA) on Monday and Jaime Garcia (10-5, 2.36 ERA), if necessary, against the Cubs. All four are better options than Volquez was, in my opinion.) 

Speaking of the Cubs, last night's game emphasized the risk of facing Chicago for a one-game play-in. Here are a couple tables.

LOWEST ERA ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	ERA	W	L	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	0.80	11	1	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	.422	16
Kris Medlen	2012	19	0.94	9	0	12	2	1	95.1	64	12	10	5	14	95	0.818	.484	34
Roger Clemens	1990	12	0.97	9	2	12	5	4	92.2	79	12	10	0	19	89	1.058	.562	61
Tom Seaver	1971	16	1.10	10	4	16	12	2	139.1	83	20	17	6	30	143	0.811	.478	42
Spud Chandler	1943	14	1.12	10	2	14	11	2	121.0	90	23	15	1	20	65	0.909	.476	46
Bob Gibson	1968	16	1.19	11	4	16	14	7	144.0	97	25	19	6	27	150	0.861	.480	50
Johan Santana	2004	15	1.21	13	0	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	.443	18
Larry Gura	1981	11	1.25	7	3	11	7	1	86.2	59	17	12	3	17	27	0.877	.507	48
Dean Chance	1964	23	1.29	15	4	20	12	8	167.0	112	28	24	4	50	123	0.970	.490	44
Gary Peters	1966	12	1.29	7	3	12	7	2	97.2	67	16	14	4	13	58	0.819	.500	46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.
(OPS+ is OPS adjusted for park and season, with an average value of 100. Arrieta's OPS+ of 16 means that hitters have fared 84% worse than average against him.)

LOWEST OPS ALLOWED AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Player	Year	G	OPS	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	OPS+
Jake Arrieta	2015	14	.422	11	1	0.80	14	2	2	101.1	53	12	9	2	23	106	0.750	16
Hoyt Wilhelm	1965	35	.442	6	2	1.33	0	0	0	81.0	41	15	12	5	17	62	0.716	31
Johan Santana	2004	15	.443	13	0	1.21	15	0	0	104.1	55	16	14	6	23	129	0.748	18
Nolan Ryan	1986	13	.444	6	2	2.27	13	0	0	83.1	40	23	21	4	34	100	0.888	26
Clayton Kershaw	2015	13	.453	9	1	1.48	13	2	1	97.0	61	17	16	4	14	121	0.773	24
Joe Horlen	1964	18	.456	7	4	1.56	17	6	1	126.2	71	28	22	5	40	89	0.876	34
Pedro Martinez	2000	15	.458	9	3	2.03	15	4	2	111.0	66	25	25	8	12	144	0.703	19
Sandy Koufax	1965	22	.459	11	5	1.94	20	13	6	166.2	92	39	36	12	37	187	0.774	36
Don Wilson	1971	15	.466	10	4	1.43	15	11	1	126.0	72	27	20	7	35	88	0.849	39
Nolan Ryan	1972	17	.468	8	8	1.41	17	10	4	140.2	74	29	22	2	75	173	1.059	43

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/28/2015.

The Cubs' Jake Arrieta, who will undoubtedly pitch in the wild card game, is basically having the best second half in baseball history, at least since the All-Star game began in 1933.

How Are They Doing Lately? The Cardinals are 16-12 over the past 30 days, tying them with the Dodgers for the fifth best record in the league, a half game behind the 17-12 Pirates and a game behind the 17-11 Cubs. They've scored 4.3 runs per game during the period, the fifth fewest in the league (the Pirates, at 4.7, are seventh in scoring) and they've given up 4.4 per game, the seventh fewest (the Pirates are second at 4.0). Yes, that means the Cardinals have managed to maintain the fifth-best record in the National League over the past 30 days despite being outscored, 122-120. Lucky? Yeah, a little, though the Dodgers, with an identical 16-12 record, have scored only one more run than they've allowed.

When the Pirates last played the Cardinals, at the beginning of the month, I wrote:

Their 2.67 ERA to date is the lowest in a non-strike-shortened year since the Year of the Pitcher in 1968, and they're on pace to win 105 games, which would be the most in the majors since the same franchise won 105 in 2004.

They've slowed down some. The team ERA is now 2.91, now "only" second in a non-strike post-1968 season, trailing the 1969 Orioles (2.83) and barely ahead of the 1988 Mets (2.908; the Cards are at 2.907). And they're on pace to win 102, not 105. They're a little banged up, with starting catcher Yadier Molina out with a thumb injury and starting pitcher Carlos Martinez done for the season with shoulder stiffness, but they've gotten other injured players (left fielder Matt Holliday, first baseman Matt Adams, center fielder Randal Grichuk) back from the disabled list this month.

What's Going Right? Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.86 over the past 30 days, fifth lowest in the league. Only by the standards of the team's full-year performance can that be considered a disappointment, and they've led the league in inducing ground balls. The Cardinals hitters have been middle-of-the-pack over the past 30 days in terms of batting average (.264, eighth in the league) and slugging percentage .425, sixth), but they're third in on base percentage (.339), with the fifth highest walk rate in the league. They have 32 infield hits over the past month, easily the most in the league.

What's Going Wrong? The Cardinals batters strike out a lot (fourth highest rate in the league over the past 30 days) and they've been pretty inept basestealers (seven stolen, six caught stealing). They've hit 26 homers, tied with the Pirates for the sixth fewest. The bullpen's had a 4.63 ERA over the past 30 days, fifth highest in the league, though it's 3.97 without yesterday's ninth inning, when Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness allowed seven runs to the Brewers, coughing up a 3-1 lead and ending the team's home season on a sour note. The relievers have struck out 28% of the batters they've faced over the past 30 days, the most in the league, but they've allowed homers on 16% of fly balls, second highest in the league and given up the lowest rate of soft contact in the league. 

Who's Hot? The loss of Martinez stings, as he'd pitched better than his 3.60 ERA over the past 30 days would indicate, with the second-highest strikeout rate on the team. With him out, the Cardinals' top two starters of late have been Jaime Garcia  and John Lackey, both of whom the Pirates will miss. The offense has been carried by three players. Third baseman Matt Carpenter is leading the club over the past 30 days with a .304 batting average, .643 slugging percentage (fifth in the league) and eight home runs (tied for sixth); he's also compiled an excellent .376 on base percentage, resulting in a 1.019 OPS (fifth). Right fielder Jason Heyward's .405 on base percentage is twelfth in the league over the past 30 days and he's batting .303 with a .424 slugging percentage. Rookie Stephen Piscotty has played first, left, and right while generating a .302/.378/.462 slash line. In more limited play, another rookie, Tommy Pham, has hit .317/.364/.650, primarily in center but also in left.

Who's Not? None of the three starters the Pirates will face have fared very well over the past 30 days. Tonight's starter, Lance Lynn, has a 4.38 ERA and has walked as many batters as he's struck out, and Tuesday's starter, Michael Wacha, has a 6.75 ERA with 14 walks and five homers allowed over his last 20 innings. Wednesday's start goes to lefty Tyler Lyons, making his first start since September 2. He was a spot starter in three stints with the club prior to the All-Star break, compiling a 5.02 ERA. Since returning to St. Louis for a couple weeks August and when rosters expanded in September, he's got a 2.53 ERA in 21.1 innings, with a good 18:3 strikeout:walk ratio and a not-so-good five home runs allowed. On offense, the team's gotten little production over the past 30 days from shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.244 batting average, .313 on base percentage, .302 slugging percentage--by contrast, Jordy Mercer, having a tough year with the bat, is hitting .262/.323/.369 over the past 30 days) and none from catcher, where Molina and Tony Cruz have combined for a .206/.268/.265 slash line. 

What's the Outlook? In a way, if the Pirates don't sweep the Cardinals, I hope they drop two of three. As long as the Cubs don't play out of their minds, that would cement the home field wild card game for Pittsburgh--no chance of catching the Cards, no chance of getting caught by the Cubs--and allow them to give a lot of players some rest. But sweeping the Cardinals, yeah, that'd be fun. Series sweeps are pretty unlikely, and I don't think we'll see one here, but this is not the invulnerable Cardinals team we saw earlier in the season. There are chinks in their armor.