Amid the end of the World Series, a few contract signings, yesterday's deadline for qualifying offers (more on that in a later post), and the start of the free agent season, baseball fans may have missed this transaction:
10/30/ 14: New York Yankees activated 3B Alex Rodriguez from the restricted list.So, after a one-year suspension for violating baseball's drug policy, we are back to living in the Age of A-Rod. Right on cue, the New York Daily News reported that the reinstated Yankee paid his cousin $1 million to stay mum about his PED use. So the circus starts anew.
And it's not just the tabloid headlines. The elephant in the accounts payable department is his salary. The Yankees owe him $21 million in 2015, $21 million in 2016, and $20 million in 2017. And, as I pointed out in January, the Yankees' payroll has been above the threshold for baseball's luxury tax for three years, which means they pay the a 50% levy on payroll in excess of $189 million. Although he was suspended in 2014, Rodriguez drew a salary of $2,868,852. So, on the margin, the Yankees' total payroll outlay in 2015 will rise by $27,197,722 in the coming year: $21,000,000 in 2015 minus $2,868,852 in 2014, plus 50% of that amount for the luxury tax. Twenty-seven point two million. That's a lot of Jeter replica jerseys to sell!
(CORRECTION, 6 NOVEMBER: I forgot that the luxury tax is based on the average annual value of the player's contract, not the salary in a given year. Rodriguez signed a $275 million, ten-year contract before the 2008 season. So the luxury tax payment in 2014 was the full 50% x $27.5 million average value = $13.75 million. Rodriguez will cost the Yankees an incremental $18.1 million in 2015, and a total of $34.75 million)
And wait, there's more! A-Rod's contract pays him a $6 million bonus for tying Willie Mays' career home run total of 660. He'll likely surpass that this year, as he's currently at 654. That's another $9 million ($6 million + 50% luxury tax) boost in the Yankees' 2015 payroll cost.
Tired Yankees fans may wonder what to do with the embattled slugger. There aren't any great options.
- Release him. This is a favorite of the talk radio set. Cut him! He doesn't deserve the honor of wearing pinstripes! He shouldn't walk the same ground that Jeter walked last season! (How many journalists will work on articles along these lines over the winter and trot them out during slow days next summer?) This is the second-dumbest suggestion (keep reading), because a released player is free to sign with any team at the major league minimum salary of $500,000, with the player's former team responsible for the remainder. In other words, Rodriguez could sign with any team for $500,000, with the Yankees still on the hook for $20.5 million in 2015, as well as $21 million in 2016 and $20 million in 2017, less any amount paid to him by his new employer. And that would still be payroll expense, subject to luxury tax, for New York. It's hard to see Rodriguez hitting home runs for, say, Tampa Bay at the major league minimum while the Yankees pay $26.4 million more in 2015 than they did in 2014 (that's the difference in their obligation to him less what he made this year, plus the luxury tax) for the privilege of watching it.
- Trade him. The dean of baseball bloggers, Rob Neyer, says that teams don't trade players, they trade contracts. Rodriguez may have value for a team needing a third baseman (Detroit? Atlanta? Boston? Philadelphia?), a first baseman (Miami? Pittsburgh? Seattle?) or a DH (Kansas City? Texas? Cleveland?). But a 39 year old third baseman, who missed last season, played an average of only 88 games per year the prior three seasons, and is owed $61 million plus at least a $6 million home run bonus over the next three years? Even if the Yankees were to throw in enough cash to cover almost all of his salary--which they'd have to do in order to get a deal done--it's hard to see them getting much in return. And how many teams would want to shoulder the opprobrium the addition of Rodriguez would engender?
- Claim he's hurt. It's hard to come up with a suggestion dumber than releasing a player to whom you'd still owe nearly his entire contract value, but this is it. During the height of A-Rod/Biogenesis frenzy in 2013, there were suggestions that a doctor could say that Rodriguez has suffered career-ending injuries (he's had several operations, including on his hip), enabling the Yankees to collect insurance proceeds to pay his salary. No more A-Rod, his contract gets honored, but the Yankees aren't on the hook. This makes a lot of sense provided that (1) the policy is underwritten by an insurer who'll gladly part with $61 million, no questions asked and (2) that said action takes place in a state that has no laws against insurance fraud. Because that's what it would be.
- Play him at third. OK, now to the realm of reality. Last year Yankees third basemen were actually decent, finishing twelfth in the majors with a .727 OPS. Still, Rodriguez has exceeded that figure every year in his career since he was a teenager. The problem is, he's 39. Here's a list of players 39 or older who played 100 or more games, at least 75 of them at third, in a season. I ranked them by OPS+, which is OPS relative to the league average, adjusted for ballpark. An OPS+ of 100 is average, higher is above average, lower's below average.
Player
|
G
|
Year
|
Age
|
Tm
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
124
|
112
|
2012
|
40
|
387
|
58
|
111
|
23
|
0
|
14
|
62
|
57
|
51
|
.287
|
.377
|
.455
|
.832
|
||
121
|
126
|
2011
|
39
|
455
|
56
|
125
|
33
|
1
|
18
|
70
|
51
|
80
|
.275
|
.344
|
.470
|
.814
|
||
121
|
128
|
1998
|
39
|
TOT
|
434
|
60
|
122
|
34
|
1
|
19
|
70
|
43
|
62
|
.281
|
.356
|
.495
|
.852
|
|
120
|
137
|
1985
|
40
|
440
|
66
|
115
|
23
|
1
|
15
|
61
|
72
|
59
|
.261
|
.363
|
.420
|
.784
|
||
108
|
124
|
1984
|
39
|
395
|
56
|
90
|
11
|
1
|
20
|
65
|
58
|
55
|
.228
|
.329
|
.413
|
.742
|
||
102
|
104
|
1997
|
39
|
353
|
55
|
103
|
23
|
1
|
4
|
28
|
48
|
38
|
.292
|
.373
|
.397
|
.769
|
||
100
|
130
|
1906
|
40
|
494
|
55
|
130
|
14
|
6
|
1
|
46
|
28
|
16
|
.263
|
.303
|
.322
|
.625
|
||
98
|
147
|
1905
|
39
|
587
|
69
|
156
|
29
|
5
|
0
|
77
|
26
|
12
|
.266
|
.299
|
.332
|
.631
|
||
88
|
126
|
1986
|
41
|
354
|
36
|
77
|
9
|
0
|
16
|
55
|
41
|
62
|
.218
|
.300
|
.379
|
.679
|
||
83
|
108
|
2010
|
43
|
344
|
36
|
95
|
11
|
1
|
2
|
30
|
34
|
45
|
.276
|
.341
|
.331
|
.673
|
||
78
|
127
|
1936
|
39
|
435
|
62
|
116
|
16
|
3
|
7
|
60
|
61
|
36
|
.267
|
.362
|
.366
|
.728
|
||
75
|
106
|
1919
|
39
|
396
|
54
|
94
|
9
|
9
|
1
|
21
|
42
|
31
|
.237
|
.314
|
.313
|
.627
|
||
70
|
128
|
2001
|
40
|
477
|
43
|
114
|
16
|
0
|
14
|
68
|
26
|
63
|
.239
|
.276
|
.361
|
.637
|
||
67
|
112
|
1987
|
42
|
177
|
16
|
37
|
8
|
1
|
5
|
33
|
22
|
25
|
.209
|
.294
|
.350
|
.644
|
||
52
|
113
|
1999
|
40
|
280
|
22
|
57
|
9
|
1
|
9
|
46
|
21
|
51
|
.204
|
.260
|
.339
|
.599
|
-
As you can see, only four third basemen in history--Chipper Jones, Graig Nettles, Gary Gaetti, and Wade Boggs--have been above-average offensive performers at age 39 or later. Could Rodriguez be the fifth? Maybe, but getting into 100 games is something he managed last in 2012. According the CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Yankees are interested in re-signing free agent third baseman Chase Headley, who did nicely in 58 games with the Yankees last summer. That means Rodriguez may be looking for a position.
- Play him at first. Yankees first basemen batted .215 (third worst in the majors) with a .305 on base percentage (seventh worst) and .382 slugging percentage (eighth worst), giving them a .687 OPS (sixth worst). There's room for improvement there. Plus, moving Rodriguez across the diamond would be less stressful on his body, likely allowing him to play more games. The problem: Mark Teixeira accounted for most of the play at first (72% of plate appearances). So what do you do with Mark Teixeira? He's owed $22.5 million in each of the next two years. And he turns 35 next April. And he's played an average of 87 games over the past three seasons. Refer to the Release him and Trade him bullets above. As for moving Teixeira to DH, keep reading.
- Play him at DH. As with moving him to first, moving Rodriguez to DH would reduce wear and tear on his body and keep his bat in games. Unlike some players who have a hard time adjusting to the position, Rodriguez has been OK as a DH, with an .854 OPS compared to his career total of .942. That's a falloff, but to a still-decent level. Only Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle among AL teams got less production out of their DHs this year than the Yankees, whose DHs had a .662 OPS. But if you're thinking at this point, "The Yankees must have some gimpy old guy signed to an expensive contract," you're right. Their primary DH last year was Carlos Beltran, who played 109 games. He turns 38 next April and is owed $15 million in 2015 and 2016.
So the most likely use for Rodriguez will probably be to play him, when he's capable of playing, at third base if the Yankees don't sign Headley, and have him fill in at first when Teixeira's hurt and at DH when Beltran's hurt. If Headley stays in the Bronx, Rodriguez will likely have plenty of opportunities to play first and DH anyway.
And remember that Rodriguez was a shortstop when he was traded to New York in 2004. Don't the Yankees have an opening there?
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