Why Guys Have Troubles With Commitments

First baseman/DH Albert Pujols signed a ten-year, $240 million contract with the Angels after the 2011 season. The contract's back-loaded, paying Pujols $12 million in 2012, $16 million last year, $23 million this season, and $1 million more every year from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, he will be a 41-year-old making $30 million.

First point: If Pujols were to stop playing today, he'd be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Or at least he should be. He has the seventh-highest slugging percentage (.597), the eighth-highest on-base plus slugging (exactly 1.000), and the 25th-most homers (508) of all time.

Second point: The contract hasn't worked out that well. Here are Pujols's numbers starting in his last of three MVP seasons, 2009:

Year	Tm	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2009 ★	STL	160	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	16	4	115	64	.327	.443	.658	1.101	189
2010 ★	STL	159	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	14	4	103	76	.312	.414	.596	1.011	173
2011	STL	147	579	105	173	29	0	37	99	9	1	61	58	.299	.366	.541	.906	148
2012	LAA	154	607	85	173	50	0	30	105	8	1	52	76	.285	.343	.516	.859	138
2013	LAA	99	391	49	101	19	0	17	64	1	1	40	55	.258	.330	.437	.767	116
2014	LAA	72	290	40	74	16	0	16	44	2	0	23	36	.255	.315	.476	.791	123

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/23/2014.

That's not pretty. 

Today at Hardball Talk, Aaron Gleeman noted:

Pujols’ power has remained strong throughout his overall struggles and his 16 home runs rank eighth among AL hitters, but that comes with a lowly .255 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And after a decade of walking more often than he struck out for the Cardinals he’s whiffed 36 times compared to just 23 walks in 72 total games.
He’s been better than he was last season, but just barely, and overall Pujols looks nothing like the all-time great hitter he was in St. Louis. Sadly it was just a hot start for a banged-up 34-year-old with another seven seasons and $189 million left on his contract.

Insult to injury: Which of these two first basemen would you want?

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB
Player A	325	305	30	91	23	3	7	32	2	1	13	60	.298	.326	.462	.788	141
Player B	334	304	42	77	19	1	13	44	2	1	24	45	.253	.309	.451	.760	137

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 6/23/2014.

Player B has gone deep more, but has a markedly lower batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. So we can reasonably expect that Player B's superior runs scored and driven in are a function of where he bats in the order than a reflection of skill, since Player A is pretty clearly the better hitter. Here's another stat: Adjusted for home park, Player A's on base plus slugging (OPS) is 29% better than average this year. Player B's is only 3% better.

Player A is St. Louis Cardinal first basemen this season. Player B is Los Angeles Angel first basemen this season. Primary Cardinals 1B Matt Adams is making $22,484,000 less than the primary Angels 1B this season.