Thursday, May 15, 2014

Throwing Strikes, Getting Strikes - May Update

Over the winter, I did a series of articles about how pitchers' ability to throw strikes affects outcomes. The research is here, here, here, and here. The basic conclusion is this: throwing strikes is good, getting strikes is better. 

Last year, these pitchers threw the largest percentage of pitchers in the strike zone:
     Pitcher           Zone%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Bartolo Colon     58.5%  18-6   2.65  1.17
  2. Cliff Lee         56.9%  14-8   2.87  1.01
  3. Bronson Arroyo    56.1%  14-12  3.79  1.15
  4. Jordan Zimmermann 55.0%  19-9   3.25  1.09
  5. Jose Fernandez    55.0%  12-6   2.19  0.98
  6. David Price       54.0%  10-8   3.33  1.10
  7. Julio Teheran     53.2%  14-8   3.20  1.17
  8. R.A. Dickey       53.1%  14-13  4.21  1.24
  9. Shelby Miller     53.1%  15-9   3.06  1.21
 10. Travis Wood       53.0%   9-12  3.11  1.15
Data from FanGraphs. Zone% = percentage of pitches in the strike zone.

And these pitchers got batters to swing at the largest percentage of pitches outside the strike zone:
     Pitcher        O-Swing%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Hisashi Iwakuma   36.5%  14-6   2.66  1.01
  2. Cole Hamels       36.5%   8-14  3.60  1.16
  3. Patric Corbin     35.3%  14-8   3.41  1.17
  4. Adam Wainwright   34.5%  19-9   2.94  1.07
  5. Homer Bailey      34.1%  11-12  3.49  1.12
  6. Andy Pettitte     34.1%  11-11  3.74  1.33
  7. John Lackey       33.8%  10-13  3.52  1.16
  8. Felix Hernandez   33.6%  12-10  3.04  1.13
  9. Dillon Gee        33.4%  12-11  3.62  1.28
 10. Jordan Zimmermann 33.2%  19-9   3.25  1.09
Data from FanGraphs. O-Swing% = percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which batters swung.

For a frame of reference, the average ERA last year was 3.87 and the average WHIP was 1.30. In case you were wondering, NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw was 35th in Zone% and 13th in O-Swing%. AL winner Max Scherzer was 16th in Zone% and 48th in O-Swing%. 

Obviously, these aren't perfect measures, but they're not bad. The pitchers listed above are all really good. How about this year?
     Pitcher           Zone%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Bartolo Colon     58.5%   2-5   5.36  1.37
  2. Phil Hughes       56.9%   4-1   3.92  1.28
  3. Zach McAllister   56.1%   3-3   3.89  1.30
  4. Nathan Eovaldi    55.0%   2-1   2.86  1.11
  5. Robbie Ross       55.0%   1-4   5.04  1.52
  6. Alfredo Simon     54.0%   4-2   2.89  1.08
  7. Henderson Alvarez 53.2%   2-3   3.33  1.40
  8. Jordan Zimmermann 53.1%   2-1   2.92  1.32
  9. Cliff Lee         53.1%   3-3   3.64  1.29
 10. Jesse Chavez      53.0%   2-1   2.47  1.03
Data from FanGraphs. Zone% = percentage of pitches in the strike zone.

     Pitcher        O-Swing%   W-L    ERA  WHIP
  1. Masahiro Tanaka   40.0%   5-0   2.57  1.00
  2. Felix Hernandez   38.0%   3-1   2.73  1.10
  3. Phil Hughes       37.0%   4-1   3.92  1.28
  4. Jose Fernandez    36.7%   4-2   2.44  0.95
  5. John Lackey       36.4%   5-2   3.57  1.21
  6. Tim Hudson        36.3%   4-2   2.09  0.81
  7. Francisco Liriano 35.4%   0-3   4.64  1.45
  8. Stephen Strasburg 35.3%   3-2   3.42  1.35
  9. Roberto Hernandez 35.2%   2-1   4.08  1.46
 10. Dallas Keuchel    34.8%   3-2   3.68  1.18
Data from FanGraphs. O-Swing% = percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which batters swung.

There are two ways you could look at this year's leaders. With the obvious caveat that we're not a fourth of the way through the season, so this isn't a large sample, you could look at that list and see some misfires. (All data are through Sunday, by the way.) I mean, Colon and Ross have been legitimately bad, and Liriano and Hernandez have been...how would you put it...not very good? So has the throwing strikes is good, gettng strikes is better rule broken?

Or is there a better explanation - that maybe Colon et al have pitched better than their record might indicate, and they could be positioned to perform better, and that the perhaps surprising performance of Hughes and Alvarez and Keuchel might be sustainable?

I'm guessing that's the case, but we'll check in later in the season for an update. 

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