As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East and the AL West and Central.
Boston Red Sox - 97-65 in 2013, 5.3 runs scored per game (1st in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (13th in MLB): The World Champions didn't add much over the offseason, though they are obviously a good team. They have two rookies (SS Xander Bogaerts and, as soon as Grady Sizemore gets hurt, CF Jackie Bradley) in the lineup and a bunch of guys on the wrong side of 30 who are more likely to be worse than better compared to last year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more given up, 90-72.
Tampa Bay Rays - 92-71, 4.3 runs scored per game (11th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): Everybody likes the Rays, and with SP David Price still with the team despite rampant trade speculation, the strong starting rotation's intact. But outside of 2B Ben Zobrist, 3B Evan Longoria, and RF Wil Myers, I just don't see them scoring a lot, and Price, arbitration-eligible next year and a free agent in 2016, could still be traded. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 88-74.
New York Yankees - 85-77, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (15th in MLB): They added a ton of talent via free agency, but they lost the best second baseman in baseball, they're old, and they were lucky last year, compiling a league-best 30-16 record in one-run games. I think they'll be better, but not that much better, for Derek Jeter's farewell tour. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 87-75.
Baltimore Orioles - 85-77, 4.6 runs scored per game (5th in MLB), 4.4 runs allowed per game (22nd in MLB): In 2012, they had the best record in the league in one-run games. In 2013, they had one of the worst. If they can split the difference, they'll be better. They added free agents SP Ubaldo Jimenez and DH Nelson Cruz but otherwise this is the same team as last year's. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 85-77.
Toronto Blue Jays - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (27th in MLB): The Jays were last season's biggest disappointment, done in by underperformance and a plague of injuries. But here's the thing: they changed almost nothing. They're counting on better health, which is probably a good bet, and marked improvement from a lot of players, which probably isn't. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 78-84.
Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
2014 Predictions: AL Central
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East, along with the American League West and East.
Detroit Tigers - 96-66 in 2013, 4.9 runs scored per game (2nd in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): They've still got Miguel Cabrera and those starting pitchers, they've added a strong closer in Joe Nathan, but the injury bug has bit LF Don Kelly and SS Jose Iglesias. Their hitters are the second-oldest int he league, so time's running out on this team to win a World Series. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 91-71.
Cleveland Indians - 92-70, 4.6 runs scored per game (6th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (14th in MLB): After the Pirates, the Indians were the happy-story team of 2013. But they lost SPs Ubaldo Jiminez and Scott Kazmir via free agency (those two combined for 37% of the team's starting pitcher innings) and didn't add a lot. I could see them regressing a lot. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 84-78.
Kansas City Royals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (18th in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (6th in MLB): The Royals continue their quest to end the longest postseason drought in American sports today. SP James Shields is a free agent after this year, LF Alex Gordon is 30, and the bullpen's best-in-the-league 2.55 ERA last year probably isn't sustainable, so the clock's ticking. But the club addressed weaknesses at 2B and RF, adding Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki, and has one of baseball's most exciting rookies, hard-throwing hurler Yordano Ventura. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 89-73.
Minnesota Twins - 66-96, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.9 runs allowed per game (29th in MLB): The Twins' starters were historically bad last year, which is why the addition of OK-but-not-great Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes via free agency is a big upgrade. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the Twins offense, and stud slugging prospect Miguel Sano is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 69-93.
Chicago White Sox - 63-99, 3.7 runs scored per game (29th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (23rd in MLB): The White Sox's Cuban import, 1B Jose Abreu, could provide pop that was lacking last year. Fangraphs projects him to be 33%-40% above league average, with power and good on-base skills. CF Adam Eaton, acquired by trade, is a formerly highly-regarded prospect looking to improve from a change of scenery. This is team with an offense that's the analogue to the Twins' pitching - can't help but get better. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 68-94.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East, along with the American League West and East.
Detroit Tigers - 96-66 in 2013, 4.9 runs scored per game (2nd in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): They've still got Miguel Cabrera and those starting pitchers, they've added a strong closer in Joe Nathan, but the injury bug has bit LF Don Kelly and SS Jose Iglesias. Their hitters are the second-oldest int he league, so time's running out on this team to win a World Series. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 91-71.
Cleveland Indians - 92-70, 4.6 runs scored per game (6th in MLB), 4.1 runs allowed per game (14th in MLB): After the Pirates, the Indians were the happy-story team of 2013. But they lost SPs Ubaldo Jiminez and Scott Kazmir via free agency (those two combined for 37% of the team's starting pitcher innings) and didn't add a lot. I could see them regressing a lot. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 84-78.
Kansas City Royals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (18th in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (6th in MLB): The Royals continue their quest to end the longest postseason drought in American sports today. SP James Shields is a free agent after this year, LF Alex Gordon is 30, and the bullpen's best-in-the-league 2.55 ERA last year probably isn't sustainable, so the clock's ticking. But the club addressed weaknesses at 2B and RF, adding Omar Infante and Norichika Aoki, and has one of baseball's most exciting rookies, hard-throwing hurler Yordano Ventura. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 89-73.
Minnesota Twins - 66-96, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.9 runs allowed per game (29th in MLB): The Twins' starters were historically bad last year, which is why the addition of OK-but-not-great Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes via free agency is a big upgrade. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of the Twins offense, and stud slugging prospect Miguel Sano is out for the year with Tommy John surgery. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 69-93.
Chicago White Sox - 63-99, 3.7 runs scored per game (29th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (23rd in MLB): The White Sox's Cuban import, 1B Jose Abreu, could provide pop that was lacking last year. Fangraphs projects him to be 33%-40% above league average, with power and good on-base skills. CF Adam Eaton, acquired by trade, is a formerly highly-regarded prospect looking to improve from a change of scenery. This is team with an offense that's the analogue to the Twins' pitching - can't help but get better. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 68-94.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Reality Check: Good Eye, Bad Eye
(I am making a minor change to these "Reality Check" posts. Rather than base the title on the speaker, I'm going to change it to the subject matter. My goal isn't to single out people who say something that's wrong or right, but to figure out what's accurate.)
The Wall Street Journal has a pretty good sports page. That's all it is, one page, but the paper has smart and clever writers. One of the daily features is a column called "The Count" that uses numbers to illustrate a point. Today's The Count is called "Who Has the Best Eye in Baseball?" To spare you the suspense (though the link isn't behind a paywall), the writer concludes that it's Freddie Freeman of the Braves. Why? Because of batting title qualifiers for last year, Freeman took the most balls per called strike, 4.99. In other words, when he didn't swing, it was five times more likely to be a ball than a strike. That was way ahead of No. 2, The Rangers' Josh Hamilton, at 3.88, and No. 3 Pablo Sandoval of the Giants at 3.76.
One of the key questions you always need to ask when doing statistical analysis is, "Am I measuring the right thing?" The answer in this case is should be, "Anything that claims that Josh Hamilton and Pablo Sandoval have a good eye is probably not measuring the right thing." Hamilton is a notable free swinger, and as for Sandoval, he was the subject of one of the funniest articles last season on Baseball Prospectus. Last year, major league hitters swung at 46% of all pitches. Of the 140 players who qualified for the batting title (502 plate appearances), Freeman swung the tenth most frequently, 55%. Hamilton, at 56%, was seventh. Sandoval's 57% was third. So the top three cited by the Journal were also among the most prolific swingers. Do they have a good eye or don't they?
I think the problem lies in the Journal's methodology. You can achieve a high ratio of called balls to called strikes by never swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. That would increase the numerator in the called balls/called strikes ratio. Or you can swing at every pitch that's in the strike zone. That would reduce the denominator in the ratio. Sure enough, Freeman swung at 86% of pitches in the strike zone, way more than any other player. Hamilton was third, Sandoval fourth.
But does that mean you've got a good eye? Sandoval swung at 45% of pitches outside the strike zone, second most in the majors. Hamilton's 41% was ninth. Freeman was 36th, at 35%, but was still above the league average 31%. That doesn't seem discerning, does it?
Say a pitcher throws 10 pitches to a batter, half of them balls. One batter swings at four of the pitches in the strike zone and two of the pitches outside the zone. By the Journal's methodology, his batting eye would get a rating of 3 balls / 1 called strike = 3.00. Another batter swings at three of the pitches in the strike zone and none of the ones outside the zone. The Journal's rating would be 5 balls / 2 called strikes = 2.50. The former batter would be judged to have a better eye by the Journal's metric. Wouldn't you think that the guy who doesn't swing at pitches outside the strike zone is more disciplined? I would.
Here are the top ten by the Journal's methodology and mine, lowest percentage of swings outside the strike zone.
Balls per Called Strike % Swings Outside the Zone
1. Freddie Freeman 4.99 1. Joey Votto 20.0%
2. Josh Hamilton 3.88 2. Marco Scutaro 20.1%
3. Pablo Sandoval 3.76 3. Jason Kipnis 21.6%
4. Miguel Cabrera 3.72 4. Nate McLouth 21.8%
5. Chris Davis 3.45 5. Matt Carpenter 22.1%
6. Brandon Belt 3.45 6. Shin-Soo Choo 22.1%
7. Carlos Gomez 3.17 7. Coco Crisp 22.5%
8. Matt Holliday 3.10 8. Russell Martin 22.8%
9. David Ortiz 3.09 9. Jose Bautista 23.2%
10. Domonic Brown 3.00 10. Dan Uggla 23.2%
Source: Wall Street Journal, FanGraphs
Certainly, the list on the left is much more formidable offensively. But that's not the question. The question is, who has the better batting eye? I'd give the nod to the guys who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone rather than those who swing at everything, in the zone and out.
The Wall Street Journal has a pretty good sports page. That's all it is, one page, but the paper has smart and clever writers. One of the daily features is a column called "The Count" that uses numbers to illustrate a point. Today's The Count is called "Who Has the Best Eye in Baseball?" To spare you the suspense (though the link isn't behind a paywall), the writer concludes that it's Freddie Freeman of the Braves. Why? Because of batting title qualifiers for last year, Freeman took the most balls per called strike, 4.99. In other words, when he didn't swing, it was five times more likely to be a ball than a strike. That was way ahead of No. 2, The Rangers' Josh Hamilton, at 3.88, and No. 3 Pablo Sandoval of the Giants at 3.76.
One of the key questions you always need to ask when doing statistical analysis is, "Am I measuring the right thing?" The answer in this case is should be, "Anything that claims that Josh Hamilton and Pablo Sandoval have a good eye is probably not measuring the right thing." Hamilton is a notable free swinger, and as for Sandoval, he was the subject of one of the funniest articles last season on Baseball Prospectus. Last year, major league hitters swung at 46% of all pitches. Of the 140 players who qualified for the batting title (502 plate appearances), Freeman swung the tenth most frequently, 55%. Hamilton, at 56%, was seventh. Sandoval's 57% was third. So the top three cited by the Journal were also among the most prolific swingers. Do they have a good eye or don't they?
I think the problem lies in the Journal's methodology. You can achieve a high ratio of called balls to called strikes by never swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. That would increase the numerator in the called balls/called strikes ratio. Or you can swing at every pitch that's in the strike zone. That would reduce the denominator in the ratio. Sure enough, Freeman swung at 86% of pitches in the strike zone, way more than any other player. Hamilton was third, Sandoval fourth.
But does that mean you've got a good eye? Sandoval swung at 45% of pitches outside the strike zone, second most in the majors. Hamilton's 41% was ninth. Freeman was 36th, at 35%, but was still above the league average 31%. That doesn't seem discerning, does it?
Say a pitcher throws 10 pitches to a batter, half of them balls. One batter swings at four of the pitches in the strike zone and two of the pitches outside the zone. By the Journal's methodology, his batting eye would get a rating of 3 balls / 1 called strike = 3.00. Another batter swings at three of the pitches in the strike zone and none of the ones outside the zone. The Journal's rating would be 5 balls / 2 called strikes = 2.50. The former batter would be judged to have a better eye by the Journal's metric. Wouldn't you think that the guy who doesn't swing at pitches outside the strike zone is more disciplined? I would.
Here are the top ten by the Journal's methodology and mine, lowest percentage of swings outside the strike zone.
Balls per Called Strike % Swings Outside the Zone
1. Freddie Freeman 4.99 1. Joey Votto 20.0%
2. Josh Hamilton 3.88 2. Marco Scutaro 20.1%
3. Pablo Sandoval 3.76 3. Jason Kipnis 21.6%
4. Miguel Cabrera 3.72 4. Nate McLouth 21.8%
5. Chris Davis 3.45 5. Matt Carpenter 22.1%
6. Brandon Belt 3.45 6. Shin-Soo Choo 22.1%
7. Carlos Gomez 3.17 7. Coco Crisp 22.5%
8. Matt Holliday 3.10 8. Russell Martin 22.8%
9. David Ortiz 3.09 9. Jose Bautista 23.2%
10. Domonic Brown 3.00 10. Dan Uggla 23.2%
Source: Wall Street Journal, FanGraphs
Certainly, the list on the left is much more formidable offensively. But that's not the question. The question is, who has the better batting eye? I'd give the nod to the guys who don't swing at pitches outside the strike zone rather than those who swing at everything, in the zone and out.
2014 Predictions: AL West
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East along with the American League Central and East.
Oakland Athletics - 96-66 in 2013, 4.7 runs scored per game (4th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (9th in MLB): I always get the feeling that the A's are just a couple steps ahead of the posse. In the Moneyball era, they had a lot of guys who got on base a lot; now everyone's doing it. Last year they emphasized pitchers who give up fly balls and batters who hit them; probably the league catches up to them on that as well. They've won more games over the past two years than any team in the American League. I think it's going to be hard to keep that streak going. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 91-71.
Texas Rangers - 91-72, 4.5 runs scored per game (8th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (10th in MLB): The Rangers made a couple huge offseason deals, signing on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo to lead off and trading second baseman Ian Kinsler for lefty slugger Prince Fielder. The trade of Kinsler opens up second to Jurickson Profar, a highly-touted prospect who disappointed last year, compiling an OPS that was 24% below the league average (adjusting for his home park), but Profar turned 21 only last month (though he's out with a shoulder injury). The pitching staff is a worry, with last year's Cy Young runner-up followed by a bunch of guys with injury problems. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 89-73.
Los Angeles Angels - 78-84, 4.5 runs scored per game (7th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (24th in MLB): Albert Pujols is apparently recovered from his foot problems, Josh Hamilton was OK in the second half of last season, and they still have Mike Trout. Pitching was the problem last year, and they added youngster Tyler Skaggs and lefty Hector Santiago in the trade for Mark Trumbo. When this team plopped down all that money on Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Hamilton, they thought they were buying pennants. They didn't, but I think they're getting closer. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 83-79.
Seattle Mariners - 71-91, 3.9 runs scored per game (22nd in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (26th in MLB): You might have heard that they signed former Yankees 2B Robinson Cano, one of the best players in baseball. Other than that, their deals were minor, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in the Cy Young voting, is out with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 76-86.
Houston Astros - 51-111, 3.8 runs scored per game (26th in MLB), 5.2 runs allowed per game (30th in MLB): It's tempting to look at last year's team and just say, "Well, they can't be much worse." I think they'll do better than that. They added CF Dexter Fowler via trade and starting pitchers Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams via free agency. The Astros also have a lot of strong prospects whom we'll likely see later in the season. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 56-106.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here's the National League West, Central, and East along with the American League Central and East.
Oakland Athletics - 96-66 in 2013, 4.7 runs scored per game (4th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (9th in MLB): I always get the feeling that the A's are just a couple steps ahead of the posse. In the Moneyball era, they had a lot of guys who got on base a lot; now everyone's doing it. Last year they emphasized pitchers who give up fly balls and batters who hit them; probably the league catches up to them on that as well. They've won more games over the past two years than any team in the American League. I think it's going to be hard to keep that streak going. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 91-71.
Texas Rangers - 91-72, 4.5 runs scored per game (8th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (10th in MLB): The Rangers made a couple huge offseason deals, signing on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo to lead off and trading second baseman Ian Kinsler for lefty slugger Prince Fielder. The trade of Kinsler opens up second to Jurickson Profar, a highly-touted prospect who disappointed last year, compiling an OPS that was 24% below the league average (adjusting for his home park), but Profar turned 21 only last month (though he's out with a shoulder injury). The pitching staff is a worry, with last year's Cy Young runner-up followed by a bunch of guys with injury problems. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 89-73.
Los Angeles Angels - 78-84, 4.5 runs scored per game (7th in MLB), 4.5 runs allowed per game (24th in MLB): Albert Pujols is apparently recovered from his foot problems, Josh Hamilton was OK in the second half of last season, and they still have Mike Trout. Pitching was the problem last year, and they added youngster Tyler Skaggs and lefty Hector Santiago in the trade for Mark Trumbo. When this team plopped down all that money on Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Hamilton, they thought they were buying pennants. They didn't, but I think they're getting closer. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 83-79.
Seattle Mariners - 71-91, 3.9 runs scored per game (22nd in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (26th in MLB): You might have heard that they signed former Yankees 2B Robinson Cano, one of the best players in baseball. Other than that, their deals were minor, and Hisashi Iwakuma, who finished third in the Cy Young voting, is out with a strained tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 76-86.
Houston Astros - 51-111, 3.8 runs scored per game (26th in MLB), 5.2 runs allowed per game (30th in MLB): It's tempting to look at last year's team and just say, "Well, they can't be much worse." I think they'll do better than that. They added CF Dexter Fowler via trade and starting pitchers Scott Feldman and Jerome Williams via free agency. The Astros also have a lot of strong prospects whom we'll likely see later in the season. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 56-106.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
2014 Predictions: NL East
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. Here are predictions for the NL West and NL Central and the American League West, Central, and East.
Atlanta Braves - 96-66 in 2013, 4.2 runs scored per game (13th in MLB), 3.4 runs allowed per game (1st in MLB): Color me skeptical. The Braves got a lot of credit for locking down their young stars over the offseason, but what's that got to do with 2014? Here are two pairs of numbers that worry me about Atlanta: .266/.357/.512 vs. .236/.284/.473, and 22.2 vs. 11.6. The former pair is departed catcher Brian McCann's slash line against righties vs. that of his replacement this year, Evan Gattis. That may not be entirely fair, given that McCann bats left and Gattis right, but hey, 72.5% of plate appearances in the NL last year were with righties on the mound. The second pair is an estimate of the number of runs McCann saves per 7000 pitches (roughly a season) by pitch framing--catching a pitch on the fringe of the strike zone in such a way that the umpire calls it a strike instead of a ball--compared to Gattis. That may sound esoteric, but framing is something that can be measured, given that there are cameras in every ballpark the measure where a pitch crosses the plate and how it's called by the umpire. McCann's consistently been one of the very best. I think McCann's departure hurts the Braves' ability to both score and prevent runs. And that's before we consider the injuries to the team's starting pitchers this spring. (Pitch framing stats from Baseball Prospectus.) Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 89-73.
Washington Nationals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): The Nats still have questions at second base, where their .670 OPS was fourth-worst in the league, and they're hoping center fielder Denard Span plays more like he did after the All-Star Break (.302/.337/.413) than before (.263/.320/.358). But they added Doug Fister, a quality starter, for spare parts, bolstering an already-strong rotation. Prediction: A few more runs scored, a few fewer allowed, 90-72, and I'm going to regret that if Fister's elbow inflammation reported this month turns out to be serious.
New York Mets - 74-88, 3.8 runs scored per game (24th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Mets added three 30+ free agents (SP Bartolo Colon, 41 in May; LF Curtis Granderson, 33; RF Chris Young, 30) to some promising youngsters (CF Juan Lagares, whose bat not keep his outstanding glove in the lineup; SP Zack Wheeler; SP Noah Syndergaard, who will probably start the year in the minors). But oh, for those Matt Harvey days... Prediction: More runs scored, more allowed, 74-88.
Philadelphia Phillies - 73-89, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.6 runs allowed per game (25th in MLB): The Phillies are making noises about embracing modern fielding analysis, which should help their newly-acquired groundball pitchers A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez. But other than those moves, they're still a really old team (key offseason acquisitions: Marlon Byrd, 36; Burnett, 37; Hernandez, 33) that can't score runs even in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, fewer allowed, 70-92.
Miami Marlins - 62-100, 3.2 runs scored per game (30th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): The Marlins play in a pitchers' park, but their offense was really was bad as it looked: They scored easily the fewest runs in baseball at home and on the road. Among the new starters this year are 2B Rafael Furcal, who is 36, missed last year with Tommy John surgery, and will start at second base for the first time since 2002; and 3B Casey McGehee, who last year batted .292 with 28 homers and 93 RBI--in Japan. At least they'll have a full season of Jose Fernandez, knock on wood. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 65-97.
Atlanta Braves - 96-66 in 2013, 4.2 runs scored per game (13th in MLB), 3.4 runs allowed per game (1st in MLB): Color me skeptical. The Braves got a lot of credit for locking down their young stars over the offseason, but what's that got to do with 2014? Here are two pairs of numbers that worry me about Atlanta: .266/.357/.512 vs. .236/.284/.473, and 22.2 vs. 11.6. The former pair is departed catcher Brian McCann's slash line against righties vs. that of his replacement this year, Evan Gattis. That may not be entirely fair, given that McCann bats left and Gattis right, but hey, 72.5% of plate appearances in the NL last year were with righties on the mound. The second pair is an estimate of the number of runs McCann saves per 7000 pitches (roughly a season) by pitch framing--catching a pitch on the fringe of the strike zone in such a way that the umpire calls it a strike instead of a ball--compared to Gattis. That may sound esoteric, but framing is something that can be measured, given that there are cameras in every ballpark the measure where a pitch crosses the plate and how it's called by the umpire. McCann's consistently been one of the very best. I think McCann's departure hurts the Braves' ability to both score and prevent runs. And that's before we consider the injuries to the team's starting pitchers this spring. (Pitch framing stats from Baseball Prospectus.) Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 89-73.
Washington Nationals - 86-76, 4.0 runs scored per game (16th in MLB), 3.9 runs allowed per game (7th in MLB): The Nats still have questions at second base, where their .670 OPS was fourth-worst in the league, and they're hoping center fielder Denard Span plays more like he did after the All-Star Break (.302/.337/.413) than before (.263/.320/.358). But they added Doug Fister, a quality starter, for spare parts, bolstering an already-strong rotation. Prediction: A few more runs scored, a few fewer allowed, 90-72, and I'm going to regret that if Fister's elbow inflammation reported this month turns out to be serious.
New York Mets - 74-88, 3.8 runs scored per game (24th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Mets added three 30+ free agents (SP Bartolo Colon, 41 in May; LF Curtis Granderson, 33; RF Chris Young, 30) to some promising youngsters (CF Juan Lagares, whose bat not keep his outstanding glove in the lineup; SP Zack Wheeler; SP Noah Syndergaard, who will probably start the year in the minors). But oh, for those Matt Harvey days... Prediction: More runs scored, more allowed, 74-88.
Philadelphia Phillies - 73-89, 3.8 runs scored per game (25th in MLB), 4.6 runs allowed per game (25th in MLB): The Phillies are making noises about embracing modern fielding analysis, which should help their newly-acquired groundball pitchers A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez. But other than those moves, they're still a really old team (key offseason acquisitions: Marlon Byrd, 36; Burnett, 37; Hernandez, 33) that can't score runs even in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, fewer allowed, 70-92.
Miami Marlins - 62-100, 3.2 runs scored per game (30th in MLB), 4.0 runs allowed per game (11th in MLB): The Marlins play in a pitchers' park, but their offense was really was bad as it looked: They scored easily the fewest runs in baseball at home and on the road. Among the new starters this year are 2B Rafael Furcal, who is 36, missed last year with Tommy John surgery, and will start at second base for the first time since 2002; and 3B Casey McGehee, who last year batted .292 with 28 homers and 93 RBI--in Japan. At least they'll have a full season of Jose Fernandez, knock on wood. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 65-97.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
2014 Predictions: NL Central
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL West is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.
St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.
Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed, 86-76.
Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.
Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.
Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.
St. Louis Cardinals - 97-65 in 2013, 4.8 runs scored per game (3rd in MLB), 3.7 runs allowed per game (5th in MLB): It's hard to see the Cards being any worse than they were last year, with a big offensive upgrade at short (Jhonny Peralta over Pete Kozma) and a big defensive upgrade in center (Peter Bourjos over Jon Jay; Cardinals pitchers don't allow very many fly balls but the team has below-average fielders in left and right). Still, that ridiculous .330 batting average with runners in scoring position, by far the best since World War II (there aren't accurate statistics before then)? No way they keep that up. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, same number allowed, 94-68.
Pittsburgh Pirates - 94-68, 3.9 runs scored per game (20th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (2nd in MLB): Definitely the sport's feel-good story last season, but they haven't done anything to improve last year's club, they lost their workhouse starter (A.J. Burnett) via free agency, and it's hard to see the bullpen (2.89 ERA, third best in the majors) staying this good. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed, 86-76.
Cincinnati Reds - 90-72, 4.3 runs scored per game (12th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (4th in MLB): I honestly didn't know the Reds pitchers were that good last year. They'll have to replace departed Bronson Arroyo's 202 innings in the rotation and hope for continued health for Homer Bailey and Mat Latos; the Reds were the only NL team with three pitchers with 200+ innings pitched. On offense, the departure of Shin-Soo Choo, second in the NL in on base percentage (to teammate Joey Votto), means that only two players in the lineup (Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce) had an OBP above the league average of .315 last year. With flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman (provided he recovers from last night's scary injury) and speedster Billy Hamilton (provided he can get on base), this will still be a fun team to watch. Prediction: Fewer runs scored, more allowed, 83-79.
Milwaukee Brewers - 74-88, 4.0 runs scored per game (19th in MLB), 4.2 runs allowed per game (17th in MLB): The Brewers are kind of a trendy bounceback pick, but other than a likely full and productive season from Ryan Braun, I don't see much improvement in the lineup. There are still big questions at first (though it can't be worse than last year) and second, and third baseman Aramis Ramiriez turns 36 in June and missed 70 games last year. The addition of Matt Garza to the rotation helps. Prediction: More runs scored, fewer allowed, 79-83.
Chicago Cubs - 66-96, 3.7 runs scored per game (28th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (18th in MLB): The Cubs have a strong farm system but most of the prospects won't be at Wrigley this year. I'm predicting improvement largely because I don't think first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.233/.323/.419 slash line) and shortstop Starlin Castro (.245/.284/.347) can't be that bad again, can they? Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 70-92.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
2014 Predictions: NL West
As Yogi Berra is alleged to have said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. These predictions for upcoming season are going to be pretty quick and dirty. You don't want to spend a lot of time reading them anyway, do you? Unlike other prognosticators, though, I'll revisit these to see how badly I did.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL Central is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70 in 2013, 4.0 runs scored per game (15th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (3rd in MLB): They're returning pretty much the same lineup as last year, with Cuban import Alex Guerrero taking over at second at some point and Dan Haren added to the rotation. This could be a really strong team if Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp can stay healthy and Juan Uribe and Yasiel Puig can be as good as last year. Do you think that's possible? I don't. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 94-68.
Arizona Diamondbacks - 81-81, 4.2 runs scored per game (14th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (21st in MLB): Can they keep their streak of finishing with an exactly .500 record, where they finished in 2012 and 2013 intact? I don't think so. They were lucky last year (as I pointed out here, their 34-21 record in one-run games was the best in the league last year, and that figure tends to drift toward .500). They're moving their best defensive outfielder, Gerardo Parra, to the bench in order to get Mark Trumbo's bat in the lineup. And their big free agent pickup, Bronson Arroyo, has a bulging disk. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed, 78-84.
San Diego Padres - 76-86, 3.8 runs scored per game (23rd in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (20th in MLB): I don't have a great feeling. 1B Yonder Alonso has hit 11 HR per 600 plate appearances in his career. LF Carlos Quentin and SP Josh Johnson are trips to the disabled list waiting to happen. Here are 3B Chase Headley's home run totals the past five years: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13. Can you spot the fluke? At least they presumably won't lose their shortstop, Everth Cabrera, to the Biogenesis scandal again this year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 77-85.
San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 3.9 runs scored per game (21st in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB): The Padres and Giants both play in pitchers' parks, so their below-average rankings in runs allowed says a lot about their key problem, pitching. The Giants added Tim Hudson, who's 38 and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, but he's been healhty in spring training. The rest of the team's unchanged other than the addition of Michael Morse in left. Morse was terrible last year (.215/.270/.381 slash line) and his best position is probably DH but he spent most of the season in Seattle, where everybody's bat seems to turn to mush, so he's a bounceback candidate. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 80-82.
Colorado Rockies - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB): The team's offense will depend in large part on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, clearly the two best players on the team, staying healthy, and 35-year-old Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 NL batting champ who had the best year of his career at the plate (yes, even taking Coors Field into account), not getting old. Brett Anderson, acquired via trade from Oakland, would seem to be a good candidate for success at Coors, as he throws a lot of sliders (a good Coors pitch) and generates tons of grounders, but he's in his sixth year and has topped 100 innings in a season only twice. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 77-85.
Since baseball games are the product of runs scored and runs allowed, I'm going to focus on those two metrics in developing my 2014 predictions. The NL Central is here. The NL East is here. And here's the American League West, Central, and East.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70 in 2013, 4.0 runs scored per game (15th in MLB), 3.6 runs allowed per game (3rd in MLB): They're returning pretty much the same lineup as last year, with Cuban import Alex Guerrero taking over at second at some point and Dan Haren added to the rotation. This could be a really strong team if Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp can stay healthy and Juan Uribe and Yasiel Puig can be as good as last year. Do you think that's possible? I don't. Prediction: More runs scored and allowed, 94-68.
Arizona Diamondbacks - 81-81, 4.2 runs scored per game (14th in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (21st in MLB): Can they keep their streak of finishing with an exactly .500 record, where they finished in 2012 and 2013 intact? I don't think so. They were lucky last year (as I pointed out here, their 34-21 record in one-run games was the best in the league last year, and that figure tends to drift toward .500). They're moving their best defensive outfielder, Gerardo Parra, to the bench in order to get Mark Trumbo's bat in the lineup. And their big free agent pickup, Bronson Arroyo, has a bulging disk. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, more allowed, 78-84.
San Diego Padres - 76-86, 3.8 runs scored per game (23rd in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (20th in MLB): I don't have a great feeling. 1B Yonder Alonso has hit 11 HR per 600 plate appearances in his career. LF Carlos Quentin and SP Josh Johnson are trips to the disabled list waiting to happen. Here are 3B Chase Headley's home run totals the past five years: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13. Can you spot the fluke? At least they presumably won't lose their shortstop, Everth Cabrera, to the Biogenesis scandal again this year. Prediction: Fewer runs scored and allowed, 77-85.
San Francisco Giants - 76-86, 3.9 runs scored per game (21st in MLB), 4.3 runs allowed per game (19th in MLB): The Padres and Giants both play in pitchers' parks, so their below-average rankings in runs allowed says a lot about their key problem, pitching. The Giants added Tim Hudson, who's 38 and coming off a gruesome ankle injury, but he's been healhty in spring training. The rest of the team's unchanged other than the addition of Michael Morse in left. Morse was terrible last year (.215/.270/.381 slash line) and his best position is probably DH but he spent most of the season in Seattle, where everybody's bat seems to turn to mush, so he's a bounceback candidate. Prediction: Same number of runs scored, fewer allowed, 80-82.
Colorado Rockies - 74-88, 4.4 runs scored per game (9th in MLB), 4.7 runs allowed per game (28th in MLB): The team's offense will depend in large part on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, clearly the two best players on the team, staying healthy, and 35-year-old Michael Cuddyer, the 2013 NL batting champ who had the best year of his career at the plate (yes, even taking Coors Field into account), not getting old. Brett Anderson, acquired via trade from Oakland, would seem to be a good candidate for success at Coors, as he throws a lot of sliders (a good Coors pitch) and generates tons of grounders, but he's in his sixth year and has topped 100 innings in a season only twice. Prediction: More runs scored, same number allowed, 77-85.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Crisis Averted at Analytics Conferece
PHOENIX, Arizona, March 14 - A potential hostage situation was averted in a hotel in Phoenix as an intruder at a conference fled. There were no injuries. The suspect has not been apprehended.
The incident broke out at the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) Analytics Conference at the Hyatt Regency Phoenix on North Second Street in downtown Phoenix at approximately 4:45 PM local time. It occurred during a panel discussion led by regular participants on MLB Network's "Clubhouse Confidential" program.
The highlight of Clubhouse Confidential panel was an appearance by the show's host, Brian Kenny, via video link. Kenny was leading the ritual killing of an "egregiously preposterous" win (Wade Davis, May 15, 5.1 IP, 9H, 3 BB, 2K, 4R), to the cheers of the conference attendees, who rhythmically beat their slide rules against their pocket protectors. (A Hyatt Regency employee present described it as "sort of like Lord of the Flies in reverse.") At that point, the intruder, described by some on the scene as "probably some kind of retired New York Times writer" ("Well, he was old, and he used big words") burst into the hotel's ballroom. He apparently was able to elude hotel security by flashing a Baseball Writers' Association of America card, insisting, "It doesn't matter that I retired years ago, I'm a lifetime member!"
Kenny immediately offered to spare the win in order to appease the gate-crasher. (Those on the scene speculated he had another win backstage as a fallback, Jonathon Niese, April 2, 5 IP, 5H, 4 BB, 1K, 5R.) When the intruder was unmoved, Fangraphs managing editor Dave Cameron ordered his dog, who had been on stage quietly chewing panelists' shoes, to attack, but the canine's incessant playing with its squeaky toy failed to distract the interloper. Ben Lindbergh, editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus, tried to shift attention from the panel, suggesting that the perpetrator consider baseball played on ice skates by nine-person teams that run the basepaths clockwise, to no avail.
The intruder was wearing a large "Morris '14" button, which investigators believe could indicate his support for John Morris, a candidate for Los Angeles County Assessor. He appeared to be primarily interested in panelist Rob Neyer, Senior Baseball Editor for Fox Sports. The assailant was reported to say, "You're why I have to keep voting every January" to Neyer while scanning the audience, muttering, "Where's that bald guy?" (At one point, his attention was drawn to SABR President Vince Gennaro, the fourth panelist, but he appeared to be looking for someone with glasses.) This led to speculation that Neyer's recent job switch from SB Nation to Fox Sports was an effort to elude the attacker.
The incident was defused when alert conference attendees began pelting the intruder with copies of the "SABR Defensive Index," a document that had been presented earlier in the day. The suspect fled, screaming, "Gold Glove gobbledy goop. Help!"
Investigators, suspecting the perpetrator is what police psychologists termed "a self-hating blogger," are conducting a door-to-door search of mothers' basements in the nearby area.
The incident was defused when alert conference attendees began pelting the intruder with copies of the "SABR Defensive Index," a document that had been presented earlier in the day. The suspect fled, screaming, "Gold Glove gobbledy goop. Help!"
Investigators, suspecting the perpetrator is what police psychologists termed "a self-hating blogger," are conducting a door-to-door search of mothers' basements in the nearby area.
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Reality Check: Jim Bowden
Former Cincinnati Reds general manager (1992-2003) Jim Bowden hosts a show on the MLB Home Plate station on Sirius XM Radio. Recently, he was discussing Reds Hall of Famer Barry Larkin in the context of current Reds first baseman Joey Votto. Votto gets criticized in some quarters for taking too many walks and not driving in enough runs. Votto's said that his approach at the plate doesn't change when there are runners on base. Some of his critics think he should "expand the zone"--swing at more pitches, basically--when there are runners on base in order to drive them in. Votto swung at 20% of pitches outside the strike zone last year, the lowest percentage in the majors among batters who qualified for the batting title, so there is surely room for expansion. Whether he should or not isn't my point here.
Rather, Bowden said that that's what Barry Larkin did in his career. When he was a leadoff hitter, according to Bowden, Larkin took more walks. When he batted further down the order, he swung at more pitches. But did he really?
It's easy to check this using Baseball Reference, which provides splits for every player, including batting order position.
- Larkin batted leadoff in 406 games. In those games, he walked in 8.7% of his plate appearances.
- He batted second in 675 games, walking in 9.7% of his plate appearances.
- He batted third in 757 games, walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances.
- He batted in other spots in the order in 342 games, walking in 11.2% of his plate appearances.
So Bowden appears to have it wrong. Larkin walked a lot less frequently at the top of the order than he did elsewhere.
And no, it's not because weak Reds middle-of-the-order hitters resulted in Larkin receiving a lot of intentional walks; the relationship holds up if I exclude intentional passes (8.3% batting first, 9.5% second, 10.6% third, 9.3% elsewhere).
And it's not because he led off a lot as a youngster before he learned the strike zone. In 1988 he batted first in 104 games, the most in his career. He was 24 that year. He walked in 5.4% of his plate appearances batting first, 9.4% batting second, 7.1% batting third. He batted leadoff the second most in his career in 2002, when he was 38. He walked in 8.2% of plate appearances in 58 games batting first, 5.8% in 35 games batting second, but 8.8% in 52 games batting elsewhere. In between, his 1995 MVP season: Walked in 12.8% of plate appearances batting first, 8.0% batting second, 13.4% batting third.
I really can't find any evidence that Barry Larkin was more selective batting leadoff or more free-swinging further down the order.
(To be clear, this isn't a knock on Bowden. He's entertaining on the radio, he's dealt closely with hundreds and hundreds of ballplayers, and memory's a tricky thing.)
(To be clear, this isn't a knock on Bowden. He's entertaining on the radio, he's dealt closely with hundreds and hundreds of ballplayers, and memory's a tricky thing.)
Monday, March 10, 2014
Things I Didn't Know: AL East
In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here), the AL West, and the AL Central. So this is it.
Boston Red Sox, 97-65: Maybe it's me, but the Red Sox going from worst to first last season didn't get all the fanfare it might've. Probably nobody really believed it was a last place club to start out with.
What changed? Well, when you score 119 more runs and give up 150 fewer from one season to the next, good things happen. But what caused those improvements? Let me point to two less obvious things. On offense, the team had 153 more walks, almost one per game, going from second-to-last in the AL to second. Only two players on the 2012 team got 40 walks. In 2013, there were eight. That's a lot of baserunners. As for pitching, it was a story of the starters, whose ERA fell from 5.19 in 2012 to 3.70 in 2013, largely because of a lot more strikeouts (18% higher rate of strikeouts per plate appearance) and a lot fewer home runs (21% lower rate per batter).
Tampa Bay Rays, 92-71: The Rays play their home games at Tropicana Field, a pitchers' park. Even though they had a decent offense last year, as evidenced by their sixth-best OPS in the league in road games, they scored only a league-average 4.3 runs per game. That meant their pitchers had to rely on limited run support. In games in which the offense supplied scored 3-5 runs, the average American League team went 21-18 with a 3.99 ERA. The Rays pitchers flourished, leading the league with a 32-12 record and a 2.77 ERA. The next best team, the Red Sox, had a winning percentage 127 points lower and an ERA 0.62 runs higher when receiving 3-5 runs of support.
New York Yankees, 85-77: As I pointed out in my NL West comment about the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team's performance in games decided by one run is usually unstable. Most teams win about half of such games, and a team that's an outlier, either by winning a lot of them or losing a lot of them, is more typically a beneficiary or victim of luck than anything else. Teams with a great record in one-run games generally do worse in those games the next year, and teams that have a really bad record in one-run games usually improve. The Yankees were 30-16 in one-run games last year, the best record in the American League. They are likely to do worse this year in one-run games, regardless of all the free agents they signed over the winter.
Baltimore Orioles, 85-77: Skeptical about my Yankees comment? Just look at the Orioles. In 2012, somewhat famously, they had a 29-9 record in one-run games, the best in the majors. Some pointed to the team's strong bullpen and winning attitude, while detractors attributed it to luck. The skeptics won out, as last year, the team's one-run record swung to 20-31, the worst in the league. (Actually, the Astros, at 18-36 were worse, but given that their winning percentage in one-run games, .333, was better than their record in other games, .306, you can't really say they were unlucky.) If the O's can split the difference and play .500 ball in one-run games this year, they'll have a better record, if not a better narrative.
Toronto Blue Jays, 74-88: The Jays were probably the most disappointing team in the league last year. After big moves in the offseason to add Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and defending NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, they were picked by some to win the division. Instead, they improved by only one game from 2012, finishing in last with a 74-88 record, done in by defense (fourth-most errors in the league), pitching (third-most runs allowed), and injuries. Only the offense, which scored more runs per game (4.40) than average (4.33), was OK.
Except at second base. The worst-hitting position in the American League was Toronto's second base. Blue Jays keystoners managed just a .216/.258/.297 slash line. How bad is that? Three pitchers (minimum 50 plate appearances) had a higher batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here), the AL West, and the AL Central. So this is it.
Boston Red Sox, 97-65: Maybe it's me, but the Red Sox going from worst to first last season didn't get all the fanfare it might've. Probably nobody really believed it was a last place club to start out with.
What changed? Well, when you score 119 more runs and give up 150 fewer from one season to the next, good things happen. But what caused those improvements? Let me point to two less obvious things. On offense, the team had 153 more walks, almost one per game, going from second-to-last in the AL to second. Only two players on the 2012 team got 40 walks. In 2013, there were eight. That's a lot of baserunners. As for pitching, it was a story of the starters, whose ERA fell from 5.19 in 2012 to 3.70 in 2013, largely because of a lot more strikeouts (18% higher rate of strikeouts per plate appearance) and a lot fewer home runs (21% lower rate per batter).
Tampa Bay Rays, 92-71: The Rays play their home games at Tropicana Field, a pitchers' park. Even though they had a decent offense last year, as evidenced by their sixth-best OPS in the league in road games, they scored only a league-average 4.3 runs per game. That meant their pitchers had to rely on limited run support. In games in which the offense supplied scored 3-5 runs, the average American League team went 21-18 with a 3.99 ERA. The Rays pitchers flourished, leading the league with a 32-12 record and a 2.77 ERA. The next best team, the Red Sox, had a winning percentage 127 points lower and an ERA 0.62 runs higher when receiving 3-5 runs of support.
Baltimore Orioles, 85-77: Skeptical about my Yankees comment? Just look at the Orioles. In 2012, somewhat famously, they had a 29-9 record in one-run games, the best in the majors. Some pointed to the team's strong bullpen and winning attitude, while detractors attributed it to luck. The skeptics won out, as last year, the team's one-run record swung to 20-31, the worst in the league. (Actually, the Astros, at 18-36 were worse, but given that their winning percentage in one-run games, .333, was better than their record in other games, .306, you can't really say they were unlucky.) If the O's can split the difference and play .500 ball in one-run games this year, they'll have a better record, if not a better narrative.
Toronto Blue Jays, 74-88: The Jays were probably the most disappointing team in the league last year. After big moves in the offseason to add Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and defending NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, they were picked by some to win the division. Instead, they improved by only one game from 2012, finishing in last with a 74-88 record, done in by defense (fourth-most errors in the league), pitching (third-most runs allowed), and injuries. Only the offense, which scored more runs per game (4.40) than average (4.33), was OK.
Except at second base. The worst-hitting position in the American League was Toronto's second base. Blue Jays keystoners managed just a .216/.258/.297 slash line. How bad is that? Three pitchers (minimum 50 plate appearances) had a higher batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Ankiel Retires
Rick Ankiel retired yesterday. You may not remember Ankiel, but he was a second-round draft pick by the Cardinals as a high school pitcher in 1997 and appeared briefly in St. Louis in 1999. In 2000, at age 20, the lefty started 30 games for the NL Central champs, going 11-7 with a 3.50 ERA, best on the team, and 194 strikeouts in 175 innings, ranking second in the NL in strikeouts per nine innings. He blew up on the postseason, though. He walked six in 2.2 innings in the first game of the NLDS against the Braves. (The Cards won the game anyway and swept the series.) He failed to make it out of the first inning of the second game of the NLCS against the Mets, throwing just 14 strikes among 33 pitches, while walking three in 2.2 innings. He pitched two thirds of an inning in the fifth and last game of that series, walking another two. His postseason ERA was 15.75 and he walked 11 in four innings.
That was pretty much it for his pitching career, as he could never find home plate again, in the majors or the minors. His 2004 season raised hopes, as he tore through three levels in the minors (23.2 innings, 0.76 ERA, 23 strikeouts and just two walks) and walked only one in ten innings in the majors during a September callup. But after throwing only three strikes in a 20-pitch appearance in spring training in 2005, he made the surprising decision to give up pitching to become an outfielder.
He played outfield in the minors in 2005 and 2006 and earned an August callup in 2007. He hit a home run in his first game back and finished the year batting .285/.328/.535 with 11 homers in 172 at-bats. There were more references to The Natural in the national media than you could shake a stick at. The next year he set career highs for plate appearances (463), hits (109), runs (65), homers (25), RBI (71), walks (42), and on base percentage (.337). He wound up playing for six teams in an eleven-year career, hitting 76 home runs--not a bad career for a guy who looked washed up at 21. In the field, he was primarily a center fielder. While a lack of control doomed his pitching career, he retained a powerful arm, as evidenced by the perfect strike he threw here (note the baserunner not budging off third):
That was pretty much it for his pitching career, as he could never find home plate again, in the majors or the minors. His 2004 season raised hopes, as he tore through three levels in the minors (23.2 innings, 0.76 ERA, 23 strikeouts and just two walks) and walked only one in ten innings in the majors during a September callup. But after throwing only three strikes in a 20-pitch appearance in spring training in 2005, he made the surprising decision to give up pitching to become an outfielder.
He played outfield in the minors in 2005 and 2006 and earned an August callup in 2007. He hit a home run in his first game back and finished the year batting .285/.328/.535 with 11 homers in 172 at-bats. There were more references to The Natural in the national media than you could shake a stick at. The next year he set career highs for plate appearances (463), hits (109), runs (65), homers (25), RBI (71), walks (42), and on base percentage (.337). He wound up playing for six teams in an eleven-year career, hitting 76 home runs--not a bad career for a guy who looked washed up at 21. In the field, he was primarily a center fielder. While a lack of control doomed his pitching career, he retained a powerful arm, as evidenced by the perfect strike he threw here (note the baserunner not budging off third):
(Video from the Baseball Prospectus Effectively Wild podcast Facebook page.)
Alex, I'll Take Inflammable for $80
This morning at the gym, two guys were discussing the word infamous. One said it meant being famous for something bad. The other thought it meant being famous within a small group. (I am not making this up.) I was tempted to chime in, but naturally, the phrase that immediately came to mind was "Don Denkinger's infamous call in the 1985 World Series." I'm sure it did for you, too.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Reality Check: Ruben Amaro
Now that we've got actual baseball games, and actual baseball people talking about other actual baseball people, I'm going to initiate a feature called "Reality Check." I'm going to take things I hear or read and test them, where I can, to see if they're true. This is not going to be a "gotcha" feature. If someone calls something correctly, I'll give credit. I remember last summer hearing Barry Larkin say on Baseball Tonight that the Seattle Mariners hit a lot of home runs. I thought, "Yeah, they pulled the fences in, but still, the Mariners aren't a home run team." Well, there's a reason Larkin does what he does and I do what I do: The Mariners wound up finishing second in the AL in homers, well behind the Orioles but in a tight grouping with Oakland and Toronto that was clearly well ahead of the rest.
Anyway, here goes. Over the weekend I heard an interview of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro on Sirius XM. I was driving, so I couldn't write down his exact quote, but the gist of it was that with free agents A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez joining the club, the Phils have two of the top ground ball pitchers in the game. He said the team (which has been notoriously hostile to statistical analysis), is going to use analytics to shift infielders around to better get all those grounders, as the Pirates did last year.
Burnett first. There were 43 NL starting pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (162 innings pitched). Of them, Burnett got grounders on 56.5% of batted balls, most in the NL. Score one for Amaro.
Now, Hernandez. He's the guy who used to be called Fausto Carmona. Anyway, he didn't quite qualify for the ERA title with Tampa Bay last year. He pitched 151 innings. Of the 48 AL pitchers with 150+ innings, Hernandez got grounders on 53.2% of batted balls, fifth in the league. Despite all those ground balls, he managed to give up the home runs at the fourth highest rate in the league, as nearly 21% of the fly balls he allowed left the park, the highest proportion in the league. That's crazy high and isn't likely to persist, though the move to Citizens Bank Park won't help much.
Anyway, Ruben was right. By adding Burnett and Hernandez, the Phillies pitchers' ground ball percentage of 44.5% last year, tenth in the league, is going to rise. My concern about the Phillies is whether they'll embrace infield shifts enough to take advantage of all those grounders, and whether their aging infielders (shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Chase Utley are 35, first baseman Ryan Howard is 34) have the range to get at them.
Anyway, here goes. Over the weekend I heard an interview of Phillies GM Ruben Amaro on Sirius XM. I was driving, so I couldn't write down his exact quote, but the gist of it was that with free agents A.J. Burnett and Roberto Hernandez joining the club, the Phils have two of the top ground ball pitchers in the game. He said the team (which has been notoriously hostile to statistical analysis), is going to use analytics to shift infielders around to better get all those grounders, as the Pirates did last year.
Burnett first. There were 43 NL starting pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (162 innings pitched). Of them, Burnett got grounders on 56.5% of batted balls, most in the NL. Score one for Amaro.
Now, Hernandez. He's the guy who used to be called Fausto Carmona. Anyway, he didn't quite qualify for the ERA title with Tampa Bay last year. He pitched 151 innings. Of the 48 AL pitchers with 150+ innings, Hernandez got grounders on 53.2% of batted balls, fifth in the league. Despite all those ground balls, he managed to give up the home runs at the fourth highest rate in the league, as nearly 21% of the fly balls he allowed left the park, the highest proportion in the league. That's crazy high and isn't likely to persist, though the move to Citizens Bank Park won't help much.
Anyway, Ruben was right. By adding Burnett and Hernandez, the Phillies pitchers' ground ball percentage of 44.5% last year, tenth in the league, is going to rise. My concern about the Phillies is whether they'll embrace infield shifts enough to take advantage of all those grounders, and whether their aging infielders (shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Chase Utley are 35, first baseman Ryan Howard is 34) have the range to get at them.
Things I Didn't Know: AL Central
In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Already hit the AL West, so now it's the Central.
Detroit Tigers, 93-69: Want to know why the Tigers were so eager to sign 39-year-old former Rangers closer Joe Nathan to a free agent contract back in December? No team in baseball had a larger differential between ERAs for starters (3.44) and relievers (4.01). For most teams, the bullpen had a lower ERA than the starters. Nathan has a career ERA of 2.14 since joining the AL in 2003.
One more Tigers fun fact: In limited opportunities (i.e., interleague play), Tigers pitchers had a .222/.300/.278 slash line, equal to a .578 OPS. A .578 OPS is better than White Sox catchers, Blue Jays second basemen, and Royals shortstops last year.
Cleveland Indians, 92-70: Cleveland feasted on lefties, going 36-20 against them. Their .643 winning percentage against southpaws was the best in the league. They had problems against righties, compiling just a .528 winning percentage. The .115 differential was the most in the league. It's unusual for a team to do better against lefties than righties (only four AL teams did), and Cleveland was helped by three switch hitters in the lineup. They team was also helped by playing in the same division as the White Sox, against whom the Indians had a 17-2 record, the best head-to-head record in baseball.
Kansas City Royals, 86-76: Royals cleanup hitters (mostly Billy Butler) had 11 home runs and 72 RBI last year. Both the Indians and Red Sox got more homers and RBI from their number 8 hitters. Not a lot of cleaning up in KC last year.
Minnesota Twins, 66-96: OK, I'm calling this series Things I Didn't Know, but I did know this one, as I discussed it in December: Twins relievers had more strikeouts last year than Twins starters. I'm repeating it because it's so crazy. It's never happened before, and as I said, it's not because the Twins relievers are all flamethrowers: their strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd among the 30 major league bullpen. It's a reflection about how amazingly bad the Twins starters (their 5.26 ERA was the worst in the majors by almost half a run) were.
Chicago White Sox, 63-99: When you play in a hitter's park, you wind up with inflated hitting statistics. US Cellular Field is a hitter's park. Yet the White Sox scored only 598 runs last year, the fewest in the American League, and the fewest for the franchise since 1980. Of the players ending the year on Chicago's roster, only first baseman Paul Konerko, DH Adam Dunn, utility infielder Jeff Keppinger, and middle reliever Matt Lindstrom were even born the last time the Sox had fewer than 600 runs scored.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Already hit the AL West, so now it's the Central.
Detroit Tigers, 93-69: Want to know why the Tigers were so eager to sign 39-year-old former Rangers closer Joe Nathan to a free agent contract back in December? No team in baseball had a larger differential between ERAs for starters (3.44) and relievers (4.01). For most teams, the bullpen had a lower ERA than the starters. Nathan has a career ERA of 2.14 since joining the AL in 2003.
One more Tigers fun fact: In limited opportunities (i.e., interleague play), Tigers pitchers had a .222/.300/.278 slash line, equal to a .578 OPS. A .578 OPS is better than White Sox catchers, Blue Jays second basemen, and Royals shortstops last year.
Cleveland Indians, 92-70: Cleveland feasted on lefties, going 36-20 against them. Their .643 winning percentage against southpaws was the best in the league. They had problems against righties, compiling just a .528 winning percentage. The .115 differential was the most in the league. It's unusual for a team to do better against lefties than righties (only four AL teams did), and Cleveland was helped by three switch hitters in the lineup. They team was also helped by playing in the same division as the White Sox, against whom the Indians had a 17-2 record, the best head-to-head record in baseball.
Minnesota Twins, 66-96: OK, I'm calling this series Things I Didn't Know, but I did know this one, as I discussed it in December: Twins relievers had more strikeouts last year than Twins starters. I'm repeating it because it's so crazy. It's never happened before, and as I said, it's not because the Twins relievers are all flamethrowers: their strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd among the 30 major league bullpen. It's a reflection about how amazingly bad the Twins starters (their 5.26 ERA was the worst in the majors by almost half a run) were.
Chicago White Sox, 63-99: When you play in a hitter's park, you wind up with inflated hitting statistics. US Cellular Field is a hitter's park. Yet the White Sox scored only 598 runs last year, the fewest in the American League, and the fewest for the franchise since 1980. Of the players ending the year on Chicago's roster, only first baseman Paul Konerko, DH Adam Dunn, utility infielder Jeff Keppinger, and middle reliever Matt Lindstrom were even born the last time the Sox had fewer than 600 runs scored.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Things I Didn't Know: AL West
In coming weeks, you will have innumerable opportunities to read previews of the upcoming season. I dug through last year's results and came up with items for each team that you probably won't see in the previews but that I thought were interesting.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Let's take the American League, west to east.
Oakland Athletics, 96-66: I don't know what to make of this, but something's going on with the A's and fly balls. Roughly speaking, of all batted balls, 45% are ground balls, 20% are line drives, and 35% are fly balls. Every team in the majors hit at least 40% ground balls...except Oakland, which was also the only team to hit more fly balls than ground balls. Same thing with pitching: Every staff in the majors had at least 40% of all batted balls hit on the ground...except Oakland, which was also the only team whose pitchers allowed more fly balls than ground balls. Over the winter, researcher Andrew Koo hypothesized that Oakland GM Billy Beane of Moneyball fame was exploiting a market inefficiency by recruiting fly ball hitters. (Original research here for Baseball Prospectus subscribers, summarized here.) But if it's true that fly ball hitters have an advantage in a game increasingly dominated by ground ball pitchers, what's up with the fly ball pitchers? Beane knows, I don't, and the A's have won the most games in the AL over the past two years, so it's obviously working.
Texas Rangers, 91-72: The most celebrated free-agent signing of last season was Josh Hamilton, who went from the Rangers to the Angels amid a fair amount of bitterness and recriminations. In 2012, the Rangers led the league in center fielder OPS, .870, with Hamilton getting 55% of plate appearances. They also led the league in left fielder OPS, .899. David Murphy was the primary left fielder, but Hamilton got 34% of plate appearances there as well. In 2013, without Hamilton, Rangers center fielders had a .719 OPS, just tenth in the league, and their left fielders were ninth at .722. Hamilton was a disappointment in Anaheim, with a .250/.307/.432 slash line and 21 homers after hitting .285/.354/.577 with 43 bombs in 2012, but his .739 OPS was still better than what the Rangers trotted out at his old positions last year.
Los Angeles Angels, 78-84: The Angels had some weird situational hitting splits. Angels batters advanced 58% of runners on second with no outs, third best in the league. They drove in 54% of runners from third with fewer than two outs, the best in the league. But with runners on first and fewer than two outs, they hit into double plays 13% of the time, the worst in the league. So they were great with runners on second and third but terrible with runners on first.
Seattle Mariners, 71-91: Not a lot went right for the Mariners, but their decision before the season to bring in the fences at Safeco Field worked. In 2012, Mariners batters hit 56 home runs at home, fewest in the league. In 2013 they had 88, the fourth most. Of course, the fences were brought in for the Mariners' opponents too, but the Mariners pitchers went from giving up 60 at home in 2012 to 82 in 2013. They hit 32 more and gave up just 22 more at home.
Houston Astros, 51-111: When you're looking for fun facts, the Astros are pretty target-rich. Worst record in the majors. Ended the season with a 15-game losing streak. New record for strikeouts in a season. Last in OPS and ERA. But if I had to pick one, it's this: The Astros were winning 56 games after seven innings. They wound up losing 17 of them. That's a .696 winning percentage, the worst in baseball. Just give them a league-average record holding leads after seven and they'd have won eight more games. Their bullpen was last in the league in ERA and last in strikeouts despite pitching the third-most innings.
I started with the National League (here, here, and here). Let's take the American League, west to east.
Oakland Athletics, 96-66: I don't know what to make of this, but something's going on with the A's and fly balls. Roughly speaking, of all batted balls, 45% are ground balls, 20% are line drives, and 35% are fly balls. Every team in the majors hit at least 40% ground balls...except Oakland, which was also the only team to hit more fly balls than ground balls. Same thing with pitching: Every staff in the majors had at least 40% of all batted balls hit on the ground...except Oakland, which was also the only team whose pitchers allowed more fly balls than ground balls. Over the winter, researcher Andrew Koo hypothesized that Oakland GM Billy Beane of Moneyball fame was exploiting a market inefficiency by recruiting fly ball hitters. (Original research here for Baseball Prospectus subscribers, summarized here.) But if it's true that fly ball hitters have an advantage in a game increasingly dominated by ground ball pitchers, what's up with the fly ball pitchers? Beane knows, I don't, and the A's have won the most games in the AL over the past two years, so it's obviously working.
Texas Rangers, 91-72: The most celebrated free-agent signing of last season was Josh Hamilton, who went from the Rangers to the Angels amid a fair amount of bitterness and recriminations. In 2012, the Rangers led the league in center fielder OPS, .870, with Hamilton getting 55% of plate appearances. They also led the league in left fielder OPS, .899. David Murphy was the primary left fielder, but Hamilton got 34% of plate appearances there as well. In 2013, without Hamilton, Rangers center fielders had a .719 OPS, just tenth in the league, and their left fielders were ninth at .722. Hamilton was a disappointment in Anaheim, with a .250/.307/.432 slash line and 21 homers after hitting .285/.354/.577 with 43 bombs in 2012, but his .739 OPS was still better than what the Rangers trotted out at his old positions last year.
Los Angeles Angels, 78-84: The Angels had some weird situational hitting splits. Angels batters advanced 58% of runners on second with no outs, third best in the league. They drove in 54% of runners from third with fewer than two outs, the best in the league. But with runners on first and fewer than two outs, they hit into double plays 13% of the time, the worst in the league. So they were great with runners on second and third but terrible with runners on first.
Seattle Mariners, 71-91: Not a lot went right for the Mariners, but their decision before the season to bring in the fences at Safeco Field worked. In 2012, Mariners batters hit 56 home runs at home, fewest in the league. In 2013 they had 88, the fourth most. Of course, the fences were brought in for the Mariners' opponents too, but the Mariners pitchers went from giving up 60 at home in 2012 to 82 in 2013. They hit 32 more and gave up just 22 more at home.
Houston Astros, 51-111: When you're looking for fun facts, the Astros are pretty target-rich. Worst record in the majors. Ended the season with a 15-game losing streak. New record for strikeouts in a season. Last in OPS and ERA. But if I had to pick one, it's this: The Astros were winning 56 games after seven innings. They wound up losing 17 of them. That's a .696 winning percentage, the worst in baseball. Just give them a league-average record holding leads after seven and they'd have won eight more games. Their bullpen was last in the league in ERA and last in strikeouts despite pitching the third-most innings.
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