| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | G | GS | IP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 26 | DET | AL | 15 | 9 | .625 | 4.43 | 33 | 33 | 195.0 | 93 | 1.349 |
| 2012 | 27 | DET | AL | 16 | 7 | .696 | 3.74 | 32 | 32 | 187.2 | 114 | 1.274 |
| 2013 | 28 | DET | AL | 19 | 1 | .950 | 2.90 | 27 | 27 | 183.1 | 145 | 0.933 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/31/2013.
If You Don't Want to Read all the Rest of This: I think we can attribute Scherzer's success to two factors. One's luck. An unusually small percentage of the balls put into play against him are falling in for hits, and he's getting the best run support in the league. Neither of those are likely to persist. But by laying off his fastball a little, he's keeping the ball in the park better. Batters are going deep against his fastball as frequently in 2013 as they did in 2012, but by throwing more breaking balls, particularly a curve that hasn't left the park yet this year, he's allowing a lot fewer homers, and that's a sustainable skill.
What's He Throwing?
Against Lefties:
Year Fastball Sinker Slider Curve Change
2011 65% 6% 30%
2012 63% 1% 6% 2% 28%
2013 57% 1% 12% 30%
Against Righties:
Year Fastball Sinker Slider Curve Change
2011 57% 33% 9%
2012 59% 1% 35% 1% 8%
2013 53% 38% 2% 7%
Overall:
Year Fastball Sinker Slider Curve Change
2011 61% 18% 21%
2012 60% 1% 18% 2% 20%
2013 56% 15% 8% 21%
He's gone to his breaking balls more. Overall, he's throwing his four-seam fastball 55.5% of the time after relying on it for over 60% of pitches earlier in his career.
What's His Velocity?
Miles Per Hour:
Year Fastball Sinker Slider Curve Change
2011 93.9 83.6 83.2
2012 94.9 93.4 86.7 81.2 86.0
2013 93.9 85.6 78.6 85.4
Scherzer's pitches are all a tick slower this year. Can't attribute any of his success to throwing harder.
Inches, horizontal/vertical:
Year Fastball Sinker Slider Curve Change
2011 7.1/7.4 1.9/0.4 8.9/0.4
2012 7.7/7.8 10.2/4.1 1.4/1.5 3.8/2.5 9.6/0.5
2013 8.1/7.7 1.6/1.3 5.8/1.7 9.3/0/2
A little more movement on his fastball. Not a lot. The movement on his curve, below average in 2012, is above average now.
What's He Given Up?
Year BABIP K% BB% HR% GB% LD% FB% HR/FB+LD Str%
2011 .316 21% 6.7% 3.5% 40% 19% 41% 9.9% 67%
2012 .337 29% 7.6% 2.9% 37% 19% 45% 9.2% 63%
2013 .252 28% 6.1% 2.3% 39% 19% 42% 6.7% 66%
(See glossary at end for definition of column headings.)
Some items are consistent. He's walking fewer people, but not a lot fewer. His strikeouts are in line with last year's, just under 30% of all batters. Batters are getting about the same percentage of ground balls, line drives, and fly balls as always. About two-thirds of his pitches are strikes, the same as in 2011.
But there are also two big differences here. First, his batting average on balls in play this year of .252 is 45 points below the league average of .297, and only 6.7% of his line drives and fly balls are going over the fence compared to a league average of 8.1%. His BABIP and HR/FB+LD percentages were above the league averages in 2011 and 2012. This year, his BABIP is the second-lowest in the league and his HR/FB+LD is the 12th lowest. The former suggests an element of luck. It's rare for a player to sustain a well-below-average BABIP. Pedro Martinez had a .282 career BABIP compared to a league average of .298. Greg Maddux was .286 vs. .295. Roger Clemens, .286 vs. .293. For Scherzer, that 45 point gap is probably as much hits not falling in that normally would as anything else. The improved home run rate, though...there may be something there. Good pitchers can keep that number down, year after year.
(All data here from Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball.)
Glossary: BABIP = batting average on balls in play; K%, BB%, HR% are percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout, walk, and home run, respectively; GB%, LD%, FB% are percentage of batted balls that are ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, respectively; HR/FB+LD = percentage of fly balls and line drives that are home runs; Str% = percentage of pitches that are swung at or called strikes.
2011 .316 21% 6.7% 3.5% 40% 19% 41% 9.9% 67%
2012 .337 29% 7.6% 2.9% 37% 19% 45% 9.2% 63%
2013 .252 28% 6.1% 2.3% 39% 19% 42% 6.7% 66%
(See glossary at end for definition of column headings.)
Some items are consistent. He's walking fewer people, but not a lot fewer. His strikeouts are in line with last year's, just under 30% of all batters. Batters are getting about the same percentage of ground balls, line drives, and fly balls as always. About two-thirds of his pitches are strikes, the same as in 2011.
But there are also two big differences here. First, his batting average on balls in play this year of .252 is 45 points below the league average of .297, and only 6.7% of his line drives and fly balls are going over the fence compared to a league average of 8.1%. His BABIP and HR/FB+LD percentages were above the league averages in 2011 and 2012. This year, his BABIP is the second-lowest in the league and his HR/FB+LD is the 12th lowest. The former suggests an element of luck. It's rare for a player to sustain a well-below-average BABIP. Pedro Martinez had a .282 career BABIP compared to a league average of .298. Greg Maddux was .286 vs. .295. Roger Clemens, .286 vs. .293. For Scherzer, that 45 point gap is probably as much hits not falling in that normally would as anything else. The improved home run rate, though...there may be something there. Good pitchers can keep that number down, year after year.
(All data here from Baseball Reference and Brooks Baseball.)
Glossary: BABIP = batting average on balls in play; K%, BB%, HR% are percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout, walk, and home run, respectively; GB%, LD%, FB% are percentage of batted balls that are ground balls, line drives, and fly balls, respectively; HR/FB+LD = percentage of fly balls and line drives that are home runs; Str% = percentage of pitches that are swung at or called strikes.
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