Strength of Schedule

A reader emailed (which is fine, but feel free to use the comments section too; I do read and respond) and suggested that instead of meting out the strength-of-schedule analysis one division at a time, I should do everything at once. Makes sense, so here goes.

For each team, I'm going to list the won-lost record of their remaining opponents (weighted by the number of games per opponent) and the expected wins and losses for the opponents in the remaining games based on their won-lost percentage. So when I write "ATL  .460 20.2-23.8" I'm saying the Braves's remaining opponents have a .460 winning percentage, which equates to a 20.2-23.8 record over Atlanta's remaining 44 games. 

NL EAST

ATL	.460	20.2	-	23.8
MIA	.509	23.4	-	22.6
NY	.494	23.2	-	23.8
PHI	.497	22.4	-	22.6
WAS	.475	21.4	-	23.6

COMMENT: Before you say anything about the unfairness that the Braves have the easiest remaining schedule in the division, consider that each of these teams has most of its remaining games with NL East opponents, which means Atlanta doesn't have to play teams with records above .500.

NL CENTRAL

CHI	.518	23.3	-	21.7
CIN	.491	22.1	-	22.9
MIL	.538	23.7	-	20.3
PIT	.497	22.4	-	22.6
SL	.510	23.0	-	22.0

COMMENT: I hit up this one last week. Nothing here to suggest an material advantage for anyone. 

NL WEST

ARI	.505	23.2	-	22.8
COL	.502	21.6	-	21.4
LA	.471	21.2	-	23.8
SD	.511	23.0	-	22.0
SF	.506	22.8	-	22.2

COMMENT: The Dodgers' remaining out-of-division opponents are the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, and Red Sox. The Diamondbacks have the Phillies, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Orioles, and Blue Jays. That's a nice advantage for LA. As for the wild cards, the NL Central teams have a decent lead that the Diamondbacks' schedule doesn't make any less daunting.

AL EAST

BAL	.520	23.4	-	21.6
BOS	.511	21.5	-	20.5
NY	.492	24.6	-	25.4
TB	.508	25.4	-	24.6
TOR	.515	20.1	-	18.9

COMMENT: The remaining schedule is a little tougher on the Orioles than the Rays. That could be a difference-maker in the battle between those teams. The O's start today 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay, 2 in the loss column.

AL CENTRAL

CHI	.523	27.2	-	24.8
CLE	.478	21.0	-	23.0
DET	.479	22.0	-	24.0
KC	.495	23.3	-	23.7
MIN	.507	23.8	-	23.2

COMMENT: The race for first is over. The Indians have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the AL, which could be enough to enable them to hold off the Royals. The wild card is a stretch for both teams.

AL WEST

HOU	.504	23.2	-	22.8
LA	.498	22.9	-	23.1
OAK	.483	22.2	-	23.8
SEA	.513	23.1	-	21.9
TEX	.469	20.6	-	23.4

COMMENT: We're not talking a huge difference here, but Texas's easiest-in-the-AL remaining schedule could enable it to hold on to the division lead and avoid what Joe Sheehan has called The Coin Flip Game. Its remaining out-of-division games are against two good teams (Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh), one okay one (Kansas City) and three bad ones (Minnesota, Milwaukee, the White Sox). They also have six home games remaining with the Astros. The A's still have series with Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Detroit - all above .500, though they also play seven against the Twins and seven at home against Houston. In a tight wild card race among Tampa, Baltimore, and whoever doesn't win the AL West, the Rangers' and A's seem to have a bit of an inside track.