Baseball. Analysis. Analysis of baseball. Baseball of analysis. No, wait, that makes no sense.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Friday, December 27, 2013
Four Things You Might Not Have Known About Ted Williams
I figure you know he's in the Hall of Fame and considered by some to be the best hitter of all time. But here are some less well-known aspects of The Splendid Splinter:
- He was very unpopular in his day and feuded constantly with the press. In The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, published in 2003, Bill James likened him to Albert Belle. I think the modern analog is probably Barry Bonds (pre-PEDs): prodigious talent widely viewed as a big jerk.
- His career in baseball was shortened by two stints in the military, as a naval aviator in 1942-45 and a Marine Corps pilot in 1952-53. Although he was widely regarded as a skilled pilot for the Navy, apparently setting records in his training to be a combat pilot, he did not see active combat during World War II. In the Korean War, although he was called up as a reservist, he flew 39 combat missions and received numerous commendations. Many enlisted ballplayers simply played on a service baseball team. Williams flew combat aircraft.
- After his baseball career, Williams became an expert deep-sea and fly fisherman, hosted a show on fishing, and was named to the International Game Fish Association Hall of Fame in 2000. He is one of only three athletes to be named to more than one professional sports hall of fame.
- During his Hall of Fame induction speech in 1966, he spoke out for inducting Negro Leagues stars into the Hall. I was reminded of this yesterday by this fantastic piece by Joe Posnanski. Williams was way ahead of his time--Satchel Paige was the first Negro Leagues player in the Hall of Fame in 1971--and saying what he said, during all the Civil Rights turmoil, was as gutsy as it was foresighted.
This is the Age of the Internet
As I've said, I wouldn't vote for Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame, but I won't be upset if he gets in. I don't get that excited over it. That doesn't stop some journalists, though:
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Los Angeles Angels, Hipster Throwbacks
The Angels' manager, Mike Scioscia, gets criticized by analysts for his reliance on one-run tactics like sacrifice bunts in a lineup full of sluggers like Pujols, Hamilton, Trout, and Trumbo. But one area where he goes decidedly against conventional thinking is his use of closers.
The Bill James Handbook has a section on relievers. Among other things, it counts, for each reliever, the number of long outings they make (over one inning) and the number of tough save opportunities (defined as when the pitcher enters the game with the tying run on base) they have.
For closers, the guy who gets the save at the end of the game, long outings have become rare. Here's a graph I did. It shows the number of saves of longer than one inning* per 100 games played per year over the last 40 years.
The Bill James Handbook has a section on relievers. Among other things, it counts, for each reliever, the number of long outings they make (over one inning) and the number of tough save opportunities (defined as when the pitcher enters the game with the tying run on base) they have.
For closers, the guy who gets the save at the end of the game, long outings have become rare. Here's a graph I did. It shows the number of saves of longer than one inning* per 100 games played per year over the last 40 years.
What the graph is telling you is that in 1984, 21 out of every 100 games ended with a reliever pitching more than one inning in order to get a save. That was the high water mark. This year, we set a new low in both the total number of 1+ inning saves (70) and number of 1+ inning saves per 100 games (2.9).
A lot of critics, both traditionalists and stats guys, don't like this trend. They say there's nothing magic about limiting relievers to just three outs, particularly since that one inning may not be the key one. Say you had a one-run lead against the 2013 Tigers. They have Cabrera, Fielder and Martinez due up in the eighth, and Peralta, Infante, and Avila after them. Don't you want your best pitcher going after the heart of the order in the eighth with the game on the line? But that's not how managers play it: the saves guy, the closer, comes in for the ninth inning only. As a result, the later innings are played more to the statistic--the save--than to the game situation.
Last year there were 37 pitchers who got at least 10 saves last year, and only 42 games in which a reliever got a save in which he pitched more than one inning (and fewer than three, as explained in the footnote below). Here are the pitchers with two or more:
Player
|
Games
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7
|
1.64
|
11.0
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
19
|
0.82
|
|
4
|
0.00
|
5.2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
7
|
0.35
|
|
4
|
3.00
|
6.0
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
1.00
|
|
3
|
0.00
|
4.0
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
1.00
|
|
3
|
0.00
|
4.0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0.50
|
|
3
|
0.00
|
4.1
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
5
|
0.92
|
|
2
|
2.25
|
4.0
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0.50
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
3.0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0.33
|
|
2
|
3.00
|
3.0
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
2.00
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
2.2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0.75
|
|
2
|
3.38
|
2.2
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
0.75
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
2.2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
1.13
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
2.2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
0.00
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
2.2
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
1.13
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
3.1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
5
|
1.50
|
|
2
|
0.00
|
2.2
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0.75
|
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/22/2013.
Number one on the list is the Angels' Frieri. Bill James tracks long outings in the Handbook, though it's not clear to me what his definition is. In any case, Frieri led the majors with 17, as many as the second- and third-ranked pitchers (Kevin Gregg, Cubs, 9; Addison Reed, White Sox, 8), combined.
How about pressure situations? As noted above, Bill James defines a tough save as one in which the reliever enters the game with the tying run on base. Here are the leaders from last year:
Pitcher Team Opportunities Saves
Ernesto Frieri LAA 6 5
Joaquin Benoit Det 3 2
Kenley Jensen LAD 3 2
Bobby Parnell NYM 3 2
Edward Mujica StL 3 2
Mariano Rivera NYY 2 2
Fernando Rodney TB 3 1
Rex Brothers Col 2 1
Danny Farquhar Sea 2 1
There were also eight pitchers with one tough save opportunity that they converted. But that's it. As with long saves, Frieri led the pack, easily.
It's not like the Angels are channeling the 1980s. The record for saves of more than one inning in a season was set by Bruce Sutter in 1984, when he had 30. Frieri had 7 last year. But it's a step; that's the most in the majors since 2010. Let's hope we move toward using the closer when the situation dictates, not just in the top of the ninth.
*There are three ways a pitcher who finishes a game can earn a save: if he pitches at least an inning with lead of no more than three runs; if he faces the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck; or if he pitches at least three innings. I excluded the last type of save from my analysis, because they're typically not all that hard. On August 28, Brett Anderson of Oakland inherited a 10-1 lead over the Tigers when he came in to pitch the seventh inning. Although he gave up three runs in the eighth, he pitched the last three innings of the game, which the A's won 14-4. He got a save. I think you'd agree that that's not a particularly valuable save. So I limited my definition of long saves to ones that are more than one inning but less than three.
Friday, December 20, 2013
What Happens When a Pitch is Thrown: Part 2 - Strikes and Balls
Here is the story behind this series.
In the first entry, we determined that just under 45% of pitches are in the strike zone, and pitchers who get it in the strike zone regularly, particularly those who exceed 46%, do better than those who don't. But I noted that throwing into the strike zone isn't the same as getting a strike, because the umpire can get the call wrong in or out of the zone and the batter may swing at a pitch outside the strike zone. So now we're going to just look at strikes.
How often is a pitch a strike? Per Fangraphs, of the 709,916 pitches thrown last season, 451,242 were strikes. That's 63.6%.
Is there a difference between the leagues? A little bit: 63.4% in the American League, 63.7% in the National League. I'm guessing here, but I assume the difference is due to pitchers batting. We've all seen pitchers flailing away at pitches outside the strike zone.
Is there a difference between starters and relievers? Starters get strikes on 63.7% of pitchers, relievers 63.4%. That surprised me since, as we saw in the last post, relievers throw more pitches in the strike zone. Digging deeper, AL starters and relievers are about the same: 63.4% starters, 63.3% relievers. The larger difference is in the NL: 63.8% starters, 63.4% relievers. Again, I assume that's because starters are more likely to face the other team's pitcher than relievers, who are more likely to face a pinch hitter with better strike zone command
Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Not enough to care about. It's 63.4% for lefties, 63.5% for righties.
Does it matter? I broke all pitchers into ten groups, based on the percentage of their pitches that were strikes. The top group, Group 1, had strike percentages between 67.7% (NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and 83.3% (the Phillies' John McDonald, who got 10 strikes on the 12 pitches he threw - the most for a guy you've heard of is 73.9% for Boston's closer Koji Uehara). The lowest 10%, Group 10, got strikes on less than 60.5% of their pitches. Here's how the 10 groups fared in terms of ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, or allowed a home run:
Group ERA WHIP %K %BB %HR
1 3.16 1.10 22.0 4.8 2.4
2 3.39 1.17 21.8 6.4 2.5
3 3.80 1.23 20.3 6.5 2.7
4 3.52 1.24 20.4 7.1 2.3
5 3.72 1.25 20.9 7.8 2.7
6 3.86 1.32 19.0 7.3 2.5
7 4.00 1.33 19.8 8.4 2.5
8 4.14 1.39 20.0 9.6 2.5
9 4.61 1.47 17.4 9.3 2.5
10 4.64 1.55 16.9 12.3 2.5
This is a lot more dramatic than the chart in the last entry, which divided pitchers by their ability to pitch in the strike zone. Throw out the freak ERA for Group 3 (or, more accurately, blame it on CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, R.A. Dickey, and Joe Blanton), and every successive group is worse than the one before it. Getting strikes is clearly important, the more the better. The top 10, Group 1, has starters like Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, and Jordan Zimmermann, and relievers like Uehara, Mariano, and Kenley Jansen. The best pitchers get the most strikes.
A fair question to ask: Why is getting strikes a bigger determinant of pitching success than getting pitches in the strike zone? Ah, that's where things start to get interesting. Next post.
What We Know So Far: The more strikes a pitcher gets, the better he fares.
In the first entry, we determined that just under 45% of pitches are in the strike zone, and pitchers who get it in the strike zone regularly, particularly those who exceed 46%, do better than those who don't. But I noted that throwing into the strike zone isn't the same as getting a strike, because the umpire can get the call wrong in or out of the zone and the batter may swing at a pitch outside the strike zone. So now we're going to just look at strikes.
How often is a pitch a strike? Per Fangraphs, of the 709,916 pitches thrown last season, 451,242 were strikes. That's 63.6%.
Is there a difference between the leagues? A little bit: 63.4% in the American League, 63.7% in the National League. I'm guessing here, but I assume the difference is due to pitchers batting. We've all seen pitchers flailing away at pitches outside the strike zone.
Is there a difference between starters and relievers? Starters get strikes on 63.7% of pitchers, relievers 63.4%. That surprised me since, as we saw in the last post, relievers throw more pitches in the strike zone. Digging deeper, AL starters and relievers are about the same: 63.4% starters, 63.3% relievers. The larger difference is in the NL: 63.8% starters, 63.4% relievers. Again, I assume that's because starters are more likely to face the other team's pitcher than relievers, who are more likely to face a pinch hitter with better strike zone command
Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Not enough to care about. It's 63.4% for lefties, 63.5% for righties.
Does it matter? I broke all pitchers into ten groups, based on the percentage of their pitches that were strikes. The top group, Group 1, had strike percentages between 67.7% (NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and 83.3% (the Phillies' John McDonald, who got 10 strikes on the 12 pitches he threw - the most for a guy you've heard of is 73.9% for Boston's closer Koji Uehara). The lowest 10%, Group 10, got strikes on less than 60.5% of their pitches. Here's how the 10 groups fared in terms of ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, or allowed a home run:
Group ERA WHIP %K %BB %HR
1 3.16 1.10 22.0 4.8 2.4
2 3.39 1.17 21.8 6.4 2.5
3 3.80 1.23 20.3 6.5 2.7
4 3.52 1.24 20.4 7.1 2.3
5 3.72 1.25 20.9 7.8 2.7
6 3.86 1.32 19.0 7.3 2.5
7 4.00 1.33 19.8 8.4 2.5
8 4.14 1.39 20.0 9.6 2.5
9 4.61 1.47 17.4 9.3 2.5
10 4.64 1.55 16.9 12.3 2.5
This is a lot more dramatic than the chart in the last entry, which divided pitchers by their ability to pitch in the strike zone. Throw out the freak ERA for Group 3 (or, more accurately, blame it on CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, R.A. Dickey, and Joe Blanton), and every successive group is worse than the one before it. Getting strikes is clearly important, the more the better. The top 10, Group 1, has starters like Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, and Jordan Zimmermann, and relievers like Uehara, Mariano, and Kenley Jansen. The best pitchers get the most strikes.
A fair question to ask: Why is getting strikes a bigger determinant of pitching success than getting pitches in the strike zone? Ah, that's where things start to get interesting. Next post.
What We Know So Far: The more strikes a pitcher gets, the better he fares.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Let's Hear It For the Minnesota Twins Bullpen
Last year, starting pitchers pitched 65.7% of innings and recorded 62.5% of strikeouts. The reason they got proportionately fewer strikeouts is that there are a lot of relievers who come in for one inning throwing as hard as they can. But overall, starters pitch the most innings and get the most strikeouts.
With one glaring exception: The Minnesota Twins. The Twins relievers got more strikeouts than Twins starters. (I heard this on a Fangraphs podcast.) That's partly because Twins starters pitched only 60.1% of the team's innings, the fewest in the majors. Still, a normal spread between starters and relievers would result in Twins starters getting 56.9% of the team's strikeouts. Instead, they got only 48.4%. The second-lowest was Colorado, with 55.5%. I don't know whether there's ever been a team before whose bullpen got more strikeouts than its starters. I kind of doubt it.
Twins relievers weren't exactly flamethrowers, as their 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd in the majors. But the Twins starters got only 4.9, more than a strikeout per nine innings worse than the second-worst team, again the Rockies. Twins starters had the lowest strikeout rate of any team since the 2006 Royals.
The Twins have stressed a "pitch to contact" pitching philosophy in recent years. They've certainly delivered on the low strikeout part. But given the team's worst-in-the-majors-by-far 5.26 starters' ERA, they've either got the wrong approach or the wrong personnel (probably some of both). It makes for an easy comparison for incoming starters Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, though.
With one glaring exception: The Minnesota Twins. The Twins relievers got more strikeouts than Twins starters. (I heard this on a Fangraphs podcast.) That's partly because Twins starters pitched only 60.1% of the team's innings, the fewest in the majors. Still, a normal spread between starters and relievers would result in Twins starters getting 56.9% of the team's strikeouts. Instead, they got only 48.4%. The second-lowest was Colorado, with 55.5%. I don't know whether there's ever been a team before whose bullpen got more strikeouts than its starters. I kind of doubt it.
Twins relievers weren't exactly flamethrowers, as their 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings ranked 23rd in the majors. But the Twins starters got only 4.9, more than a strikeout per nine innings worse than the second-worst team, again the Rockies. Twins starters had the lowest strikeout rate of any team since the 2006 Royals.
The Twins have stressed a "pitch to contact" pitching philosophy in recent years. They've certainly delivered on the low strikeout part. But given the team's worst-in-the-majors-by-far 5.26 starters' ERA, they've either got the wrong approach or the wrong personnel (probably some of both). It makes for an easy comparison for incoming starters Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, though.
Monday, December 16, 2013
What Happens When A Pitch is Thrown: Part 1 - The Strike Zone
This is the first of a series of posts. I'm not sure how many - we'll see where it goes.
Baseball can be described as a series of events. In the last game of the World Series, for example, Boston won 6-1. On a more detailed level, the Red Sox took command by scoring three in the third and three in the fourth, the biggest hit being Shane Victorino's bases loaded double in the third. But at the most granular level, the game was determined by the 284 pitches thrown in the game, and what happened with each of them. We're going to look at how that works.
When I say we're going to look at this, I'm not using the editorial we. I'm going to ask a lot of questions and try to provide answers. Most of the time, I'm finding out the answers for the first time. We're going to find out things together.
So here goes.
How often is a pitch in the strike zone? There are several places to find this. I used Fangraphs, which has customizable leaderboards. I looked up the percentage of pitches in the strike zone. The answer, in 2013, is 44.7%. This isn't the same thing as the percentage of pitches that are strikes. (I'll get to that next.) Sometimes a pitch in the zone is erroneously called a ball. Sometimes a pitch outside the strike zone is erroneously called a strike. Often, a batter will swing at a pitch outside the strike zone. All those can turn pitched strikes into balls and pitched balls into strikes. Here, we're just looking at the percentage of pitches that cross the plate in the strike zone. The answer, as I said, is 44.7%.
Is there a difference between the leagues? Not much of one: 44.7% in the American League, 44.8% in the National League. Maybe it's a little higher in the NL because pitchers don't have to get cute with the strike zone when the other team's pitcher is at the plate; they can just throw it in the zone and there's a good chance the pitcher will make an out. I'm not going to worry about it; the difference is too small.
Is there a difference between starters and relievers? A slight one. Starters are in the zone 44.7% of the time, relievers 44.9%. Again, that's a pretty small difference. I think we can attribute it to two factors. First, relievers come into the game fresh and aren't fatigued. Second, relievers often come into pressure situations where a base on balls is more damaging than, say, a walk in the second inning with one out and nobody on. Anyway, the difference isn't large.
Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Lefties are in the strike zone on 44.9% of their pitches compared to 44.7% for right-handed pitchers. I'm not going to hypothesize yet on the reason for this small difference.
Does it matter? This is a key question when looking at any statistic: Context. For instance, last year the Dodgers won 88% of the games that they led after seven innings. Does that mean that if you want to win against the Dodgers, you need to score early, because their bullpen locks down leads after seven innings? No. In fact, that 88% success rate was one of the lowest in the majors. A figure doesn't tell us anything by itself, we need to know what it means.
So what does throwing strikes mean? To answer the question, I borrowed a method from the Bill James Handbook 2014 and divided all pitchers into ten roughly equal-sized groups, based on the percentage of their pitches that were in the strike zone. The top 10% ranges from Wesley Wright, who, in 53 2/3 innings split between the Astros and the Rays, got 48.4% of his 910 pitches in the strike zone, to the Cardinals' Rob Johnson, who threw only four pitches all year with three in the zone. Familiar names in this group include Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen (55.1%), Phillies starter Cliff Lee (53.3%), and Reds workhouse Bronson Arroyo (50.0%). The bottom 10%, all of whom got 41% or less of their pitches in the strike zone, includes Yankees ace Hiroki Kuroda (38.8%) and A's closer Grant Balfour (39.6%). So if there are good pitchers in the best and worst groups, how important is this?
Pretty important, it turns out. Here are ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, and allowed home runs for each group:
ERA WHIP %K %BB %HR
1 3.67 1.23 20.2 6.5 2.6
2 3.66 1.23 20.8 7.1 2.7
3 3.65 1.25 21.2 7.8 2.4
4 3.73 1.27 21.1 7.9 2.6
5 3.88 1.30 18.2 7.2 2.4
6 3.89 1.30 20.8 8.1 2.5
7 3.94 1.32 19.2 7.8 2.5
8 4.00 1.33 20.2 8.9 2.4
9 4.08 1.37 19.2 8.8 2.6
10 4.17 1.40 17.9 9.3 2.4
In the table, the first row is the top 10% of pitchers, the second is the next 10%, etc. This says that pitching to the strike zone is important, though not as dramatically as we might've thought. There really isn't much of a difference among the top 30%, other than that pitchers who throw more pitches in the strike zone walk fewer batters. Once you get past them, though, the ERAs and WHIPs start climbing. The dividing line's right around 46% of pitches thrown in the strike zone--below that, and performance starts to deteriorate. The one exception is home runs, which don't appear to be dependent on the percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone. In fact, the correlation between home run rate and pitches in the strike zone is positive, indicating that pitchers in the zone tend to allow more homers.
What We Know So Far: Pitchers who throw more pitches in the strike zone are generally better pitchers than those who don't.
Baseball can be described as a series of events. In the last game of the World Series, for example, Boston won 6-1. On a more detailed level, the Red Sox took command by scoring three in the third and three in the fourth, the biggest hit being Shane Victorino's bases loaded double in the third. But at the most granular level, the game was determined by the 284 pitches thrown in the game, and what happened with each of them. We're going to look at how that works.
When I say we're going to look at this, I'm not using the editorial we. I'm going to ask a lot of questions and try to provide answers. Most of the time, I'm finding out the answers for the first time. We're going to find out things together.
So here goes.
How often is a pitch in the strike zone? There are several places to find this. I used Fangraphs, which has customizable leaderboards. I looked up the percentage of pitches in the strike zone. The answer, in 2013, is 44.7%. This isn't the same thing as the percentage of pitches that are strikes. (I'll get to that next.) Sometimes a pitch in the zone is erroneously called a ball. Sometimes a pitch outside the strike zone is erroneously called a strike. Often, a batter will swing at a pitch outside the strike zone. All those can turn pitched strikes into balls and pitched balls into strikes. Here, we're just looking at the percentage of pitches that cross the plate in the strike zone. The answer, as I said, is 44.7%.
Is there a difference between the leagues? Not much of one: 44.7% in the American League, 44.8% in the National League. Maybe it's a little higher in the NL because pitchers don't have to get cute with the strike zone when the other team's pitcher is at the plate; they can just throw it in the zone and there's a good chance the pitcher will make an out. I'm not going to worry about it; the difference is too small.
Is there a difference between starters and relievers? A slight one. Starters are in the zone 44.7% of the time, relievers 44.9%. Again, that's a pretty small difference. I think we can attribute it to two factors. First, relievers come into the game fresh and aren't fatigued. Second, relievers often come into pressure situations where a base on balls is more damaging than, say, a walk in the second inning with one out and nobody on. Anyway, the difference isn't large.
Is there a difference between right-handed and left-handed pitchers? Lefties are in the strike zone on 44.9% of their pitches compared to 44.7% for right-handed pitchers. I'm not going to hypothesize yet on the reason for this small difference.
Does it matter? This is a key question when looking at any statistic: Context. For instance, last year the Dodgers won 88% of the games that they led after seven innings. Does that mean that if you want to win against the Dodgers, you need to score early, because their bullpen locks down leads after seven innings? No. In fact, that 88% success rate was one of the lowest in the majors. A figure doesn't tell us anything by itself, we need to know what it means.
So what does throwing strikes mean? To answer the question, I borrowed a method from the Bill James Handbook 2014 and divided all pitchers into ten roughly equal-sized groups, based on the percentage of their pitches that were in the strike zone. The top 10% ranges from Wesley Wright, who, in 53 2/3 innings split between the Astros and the Rays, got 48.4% of his 910 pitches in the strike zone, to the Cardinals' Rob Johnson, who threw only four pitches all year with three in the zone. Familiar names in this group include Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen (55.1%), Phillies starter Cliff Lee (53.3%), and Reds workhouse Bronson Arroyo (50.0%). The bottom 10%, all of whom got 41% or less of their pitches in the strike zone, includes Yankees ace Hiroki Kuroda (38.8%) and A's closer Grant Balfour (39.6%). So if there are good pitchers in the best and worst groups, how important is this?
Pretty important, it turns out. Here are ERA, WHIP (walks and hits per inning), and percentage of batters struck out, walked, and allowed home runs for each group:
ERA WHIP %K %BB %HR
1 3.67 1.23 20.2 6.5 2.6
2 3.66 1.23 20.8 7.1 2.7
3 3.65 1.25 21.2 7.8 2.4
4 3.73 1.27 21.1 7.9 2.6
5 3.88 1.30 18.2 7.2 2.4
6 3.89 1.30 20.8 8.1 2.5
7 3.94 1.32 19.2 7.8 2.5
8 4.00 1.33 20.2 8.9 2.4
9 4.08 1.37 19.2 8.8 2.6
10 4.17 1.40 17.9 9.3 2.4
In the table, the first row is the top 10% of pitchers, the second is the next 10%, etc. This says that pitching to the strike zone is important, though not as dramatically as we might've thought. There really isn't much of a difference among the top 30%, other than that pitchers who throw more pitches in the strike zone walk fewer batters. Once you get past them, though, the ERAs and WHIPs start climbing. The dividing line's right around 46% of pitches thrown in the strike zone--below that, and performance starts to deteriorate. The one exception is home runs, which don't appear to be dependent on the percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone. In fact, the correlation between home run rate and pitches in the strike zone is positive, indicating that pitchers in the zone tend to allow more homers.
What We Know So Far: Pitchers who throw more pitches in the strike zone are generally better pitchers than those who don't.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Diamondbacks Fans, Meet Mark Trumbo
Another interleague trade. Mark Trumbo has never played against the Diamondbacks, so he's new to Arizona fans. Here's the skinny.
What's Good About Him? Power. Trumbo was tenth in the American League in homers in 2012 with 32 and fourth last year with 34. He's been a regular the past three years, and in that time, among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances, he's tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton for fifth in home runs with 95. He's gone deep once every 17.92 at bats, the 14th-highest rate. He batted in exactly 100 runs last year.
What's Not So Good About Him? A lot of power hitters also strike out a lot (not good), walk a lot (good), and hit into a lot of double plays (not good). Trumbo did strike out a lot: Once every 4.0 plate appearances, 12th highest in the majors among players with over 1,500 plate appearances. He grounded into a double play once every 39.1 plate appearances, 27th highest in the majors. But he didn't walk all that much: Once every 16.0 plate appearances, 84th in the majors. There were 104 players who logged 1,500+ plate appearances, so he struck out and grounded into double plays more than average and walked less often than average. All those strikeouts have kept his batting average low: .251 in his three years as a regular, .234 in 2013. The lack of walks have hurt his on base percentage: .300 as a regular, .294 last year. His homers have kept given him a good slugging percentage: .473 as a regular, .453 last year. His .251/.300/.473 slash line over the past three years compares to .256/.321/.408 for the American League as a whole.
This is not to say he's not valuable. Because of his power, his OPS has been consistently above average: about 15% over the past three years, adjusted for his park. Only MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, and part-time third baseman Eric Chavez topped that figure on the Diamondbacks last season.
Trumbo's not a great fielder, and his best position is first base, where he's not going to unseat Goldschmidt. He'll be a corner outfielder.
So What Should Diamondbacks Fans Expect? Despite playing in a hitters' park, Arizona had the sixth-lowest slugging percentage and tied for the fourth-fewest homers in the National League last year. Trumbo will help on both scores. The ESPN Home Run Tracker chart at right doesn't do him justice: It shows where his home runs last season would've landed at Arizona's Chase Field. But Chase Field's an easier place to hit a home run than Angel Stadium, resulting in a park index of 106 for home runs at Chase (6% more home runs hit there than in Diamondbacks games on the road) compared to 90 in Anaheim (10% fewer than in Angels road games). So presumably some of Trumbo's fly outs at Anaheim will be round-trippers in Arizona. Trumbo crushes the ball when he connects--his average home run distance of 413 feet was fifth highest in the majors last year--so 35-40 home runs (along with a lot of strikeouts) seems a reasonable expectation.
What's Good About Him? Power. Trumbo was tenth in the American League in homers in 2012 with 32 and fourth last year with 34. He's been a regular the past three years, and in that time, among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances, he's tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Giancarlo Stanton for fifth in home runs with 95. He's gone deep once every 17.92 at bats, the 14th-highest rate. He batted in exactly 100 runs last year.
What's Not So Good About Him? A lot of power hitters also strike out a lot (not good), walk a lot (good), and hit into a lot of double plays (not good). Trumbo did strike out a lot: Once every 4.0 plate appearances, 12th highest in the majors among players with over 1,500 plate appearances. He grounded into a double play once every 39.1 plate appearances, 27th highest in the majors. But he didn't walk all that much: Once every 16.0 plate appearances, 84th in the majors. There were 104 players who logged 1,500+ plate appearances, so he struck out and grounded into double plays more than average and walked less often than average. All those strikeouts have kept his batting average low: .251 in his three years as a regular, .234 in 2013. The lack of walks have hurt his on base percentage: .300 as a regular, .294 last year. His homers have kept given him a good slugging percentage: .473 as a regular, .453 last year. His .251/.300/.473 slash line over the past three years compares to .256/.321/.408 for the American League as a whole.
This is not to say he's not valuable. Because of his power, his OPS has been consistently above average: about 15% over the past three years, adjusted for his park. Only MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, and part-time third baseman Eric Chavez topped that figure on the Diamondbacks last season.
Trumbo's not a great fielder, and his best position is first base, where he's not going to unseat Goldschmidt. He'll be a corner outfielder.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Royals Fans, Meet Norichika Aoki
There sure seem to have been a lot of players changing leagues, haven't there? That means that things will be mostly new. Ricky Nolasco, now with the Twins, had been in the National League his entire career. Justin Morneau, now with the Rockies, had been in the American League for all but one month of his career. And now, the Kansas City Royals have landed former Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki for the endlessly-joked-about-because-of-his-name Will Smith. Other than three starts in Kansas City in 2012 during interleague play (during which, in 14 plate appearances, he got two singles, was hit twice, laid down a bunt, hit a double, and was caught stealing) he's a new name to Kansas City.
What's Good About Him? When the Brewers signed Aoki prior to the 2012 season, the consensus view was that the three-time Japanese League batting champion for the Yakult Swallows was, at age 29, over the hill. He was viewed as a fourth outfielder and played accordingly, starting only three games in April and 15 in May. His hitting and a succession of injuries to Brewers outfielders landed him a regular role that he never relinquished.
In 2013, as the team's right fielder, he led the NL in singles (140), was tenth in hits (171), and seventh in total times on base (237). His .286 batting average and .356 on base percentage compared favorably to the major league averages of .266 and .320 for right fielders. He bats left but actually hit better against left-handed pitchers last year (.781 OPS against lefties, .703 against righties), and he did better against left-handed starters (though not relievers) in 2012 as well. The average major league lefty batter lost 96 points of OPS against lefties last year. Among Brewer regulars, his on base percentage trailed only Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and was 19th among the 64 players who qualified for the NL batting title. He was the toughest player to strike out in the majors. And he played strong defense, finishing sixth in the Fielding Bible Award voting for right fielders.
What's Not So Good About Him? There's one major weakness and one minor one in Aoki's game. The major one is power. His isolated power, defined as slugging percentage minus batting average (i.e., the amount of his slugging percentage attributable to extra-base hits) was the third-lowest in the NL. His slugging percentage was tenth lowest, boosted by all those singles. He hit just 20 doubles and 8 homers in 2013 compared to 37 and 10 in 2012. He's obviously more of a singles-and-speed guy than a power guy, but that lack of power is a drawback.
The second, smaller issue is that he's gone from being a pretty good basestealer in 2012 (30 stolen, 8 caught, 79% success rate vs. major league average of 74%) to a pretty bad one in 2013 (20 stolen, 12 caught, 63% success rate vs. major league average of 73%). He turns 32 in January, so he's at an age where his speed is more likely to regress than progress.
So What Should Royals Fans Expect? Royals right fielders, primarily David Lough and Jeff Francoeur, were pretty bad last year, compiling a .258/.304/.392 slash line compared to .286/.356/370 for Aoki. Aoki's on-base skills far outweigh the prior players' superior power. Further, Royals leadoff hitters had a .309 on base percentage, sixth-worst in the majors last year, while the Brewers leadoff hitters, primarily Aoki, were third-best. The main goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base. The Royals were bad at it and Aoki's good at it. So this trade is an upgrade for the Royals in two ways: They'll get more production from the right field position overall, and specifically, Aoki's superior on-base skills fills a major need in the leadoff position. And they'll get a strong defensive player to boot. That far outweighs the loss of all those really bad Men In Black references to the departed reliever.
What's Good About Him? When the Brewers signed Aoki prior to the 2012 season, the consensus view was that the three-time Japanese League batting champion for the Yakult Swallows was, at age 29, over the hill. He was viewed as a fourth outfielder and played accordingly, starting only three games in April and 15 in May. His hitting and a succession of injuries to Brewers outfielders landed him a regular role that he never relinquished.
In 2013, as the team's right fielder, he led the NL in singles (140), was tenth in hits (171), and seventh in total times on base (237). His .286 batting average and .356 on base percentage compared favorably to the major league averages of .266 and .320 for right fielders. He bats left but actually hit better against left-handed pitchers last year (.781 OPS against lefties, .703 against righties), and he did better against left-handed starters (though not relievers) in 2012 as well. The average major league lefty batter lost 96 points of OPS against lefties last year. Among Brewer regulars, his on base percentage trailed only Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and was 19th among the 64 players who qualified for the NL batting title. He was the toughest player to strike out in the majors. And he played strong defense, finishing sixth in the Fielding Bible Award voting for right fielders.
What's Not So Good About Him? There's one major weakness and one minor one in Aoki's game. The major one is power. His isolated power, defined as slugging percentage minus batting average (i.e., the amount of his slugging percentage attributable to extra-base hits) was the third-lowest in the NL. His slugging percentage was tenth lowest, boosted by all those singles. He hit just 20 doubles and 8 homers in 2013 compared to 37 and 10 in 2012. He's obviously more of a singles-and-speed guy than a power guy, but that lack of power is a drawback.
The second, smaller issue is that he's gone from being a pretty good basestealer in 2012 (30 stolen, 8 caught, 79% success rate vs. major league average of 74%) to a pretty bad one in 2013 (20 stolen, 12 caught, 63% success rate vs. major league average of 73%). He turns 32 in January, so he's at an age where his speed is more likely to regress than progress.
So What Should Royals Fans Expect? Royals right fielders, primarily David Lough and Jeff Francoeur, were pretty bad last year, compiling a .258/.304/.392 slash line compared to .286/.356/370 for Aoki. Aoki's on-base skills far outweigh the prior players' superior power. Further, Royals leadoff hitters had a .309 on base percentage, sixth-worst in the majors last year, while the Brewers leadoff hitters, primarily Aoki, were third-best. The main goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base. The Royals were bad at it and Aoki's good at it. So this trade is an upgrade for the Royals in two ways: They'll get more production from the right field position overall, and specifically, Aoki's superior on-base skills fills a major need in the leadoff position. And they'll get a strong defensive player to boot. That far outweighs the loss of all those really bad Men In Black references to the departed reliever.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Rockies Fans, Meet Justin Morneau
The Colorado Rockies have signed 32 year old Justin Morneau to a $12.5 million two year contract. He will be the team's first baseman, replacing the retired Todd Helton, who played 108 games there in 2013.
What's Good About Him? The narrative about Morneau is that the 2006 American League MVP was having another MVP-caliber year in 2010 when he suffered a concussion sliding into second base hasn't been the same since. Sadly, that's true. Finding positives in his game since 2011 is pretty hard. He was OK with the glove last year and he played 152 games, his most since 2008. He had a couple pretty good months (June and August) and batted .292 in the postseason for the Pirates.
Morneau bats left. With the lefty Helton retired and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler traded to the Astros, Morneau and Carlos Gonzalez are the only lefthanded bats in the Rockies' lineup (depending on who replaces Fowler). Morneau is a lot more effective against right-handed pitchers, of which the righty-leaning Rockies lineup is likely to see a lot. He batted .280 with a .352 on base percentage and .467 slugging percentage against right handed pitchers compared to .207/.247/.278 slash line against lefties. He got 15 of his 17 homers against righties as well.
What's Not So Good About Him? Through 2010, he had a .286 batting average, a .358 on base percentage, and a .511 slugging percentage. He hit home runs in 4.6% of his plate appearances, struck out 15.1% and walked 10.0%. Since the injury, he's batted .256/.319/.406. His home run rate's been 2.7%, strikeouts 17.2%, walks 7.9%. He's made less contact, putting 30% of strikes in play compared to 33% prior to the injury, with more swinging strikes and foul balls. His batted balls just aren't going as far: before the injury, 12% of his fly balls and line drives went over the fence and 12% were infield outs; since the injury, only 7% have left the park and 14% have stayed in the infield. He's done worse against fastballs (.524 slugging percentage before the injury, .344 after) and breaking balls (.448 slugging against sliders before the injury, .370 after; .622 slugging against curves before the injury, .390 after). I'm going to stop, this is depressing.
So What Should Rockies Fans Expect? First base is a hitter's position. The average major league first baseman batted .261 with a .337 on base percentage and .436 slugging percentage last year, .262/.336/.442 in 2012 and .271/.345/.452 in 2011. Since his injury, Morneau's .267 batting average in 2012 represents the only time he's been above-average in any of the three key batting statistics. He'll get a lift from Coors, as most hitters do, but adjusted for the park, the Rockies are most likely getting below-average production from first base for the next couple years, albeit a pickup from Helton's .249/.314/.423 last year.
What's Good About Him? The narrative about Morneau is that the 2006 American League MVP was having another MVP-caliber year in 2010 when he suffered a concussion sliding into second base hasn't been the same since. Sadly, that's true. Finding positives in his game since 2011 is pretty hard. He was OK with the glove last year and he played 152 games, his most since 2008. He had a couple pretty good months (June and August) and batted .292 in the postseason for the Pirates.
Morneau bats left. With the lefty Helton retired and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler traded to the Astros, Morneau and Carlos Gonzalez are the only lefthanded bats in the Rockies' lineup (depending on who replaces Fowler). Morneau is a lot more effective against right-handed pitchers, of which the righty-leaning Rockies lineup is likely to see a lot. He batted .280 with a .352 on base percentage and .467 slugging percentage against right handed pitchers compared to .207/.247/.278 slash line against lefties. He got 15 of his 17 homers against righties as well.
What's Not So Good About Him? Through 2010, he had a .286 batting average, a .358 on base percentage, and a .511 slugging percentage. He hit home runs in 4.6% of his plate appearances, struck out 15.1% and walked 10.0%. Since the injury, he's batted .256/.319/.406. His home run rate's been 2.7%, strikeouts 17.2%, walks 7.9%. He's made less contact, putting 30% of strikes in play compared to 33% prior to the injury, with more swinging strikes and foul balls. His batted balls just aren't going as far: before the injury, 12% of his fly balls and line drives went over the fence and 12% were infield outs; since the injury, only 7% have left the park and 14% have stayed in the infield. He's done worse against fastballs (.524 slugging percentage before the injury, .344 after) and breaking balls (.448 slugging against sliders before the injury, .370 after; .622 slugging against curves before the injury, .390 after). I'm going to stop, this is depressing.
So What Should Rockies Fans Expect? First base is a hitter's position. The average major league first baseman batted .261 with a .337 on base percentage and .436 slugging percentage last year, .262/.336/.442 in 2012 and .271/.345/.452 in 2011. Since his injury, Morneau's .267 batting average in 2012 represents the only time he's been above-average in any of the three key batting statistics. He'll get a lift from Coors, as most hitters do, but adjusted for the park, the Rockies are most likely getting below-average production from first base for the next couple years, albeit a pickup from Helton's .249/.314/.423 last year.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
The Hall of Fame Vote
As I said earlier, I don't get particularly animated over the Hall of Fame. But over at Sports Illustrated, Jay Jaffe has written this year's definitive piece on why Tim Raines should be in the Hall of Fame. His conclusion, discussing the wait that some deserving Hall of Famers must endure:
Tim Raines shouldn’t have to wait that long. He shouldn’t have had to wait at all. He deserves to go into the Hall of Fame ASAP.
Great piece. Check it out.
Robinson Cano and the Yankees
I hit up the Mariners' $240 million, 10-year free agent contract with Robinson Cano earlier. There are two implications of this deal for the Yankees, as I see it.
- The Bombers have a somewhat unfair reputation for "buying pennants." There was a time when they signed high-priced star free agents by the armload. But there really hasn't been that much of that recently; the last two splurges were CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, and that was five years ago. (Yes, I know, Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury signed big contracts, but they are not stars like CC and Tex were.) What the Yankees have done, though, is retain their key players, most famously Jeter, Rivera, Pettite, and Posada. Can you remember the Yankees losing their best hitter, in his prime, to free agency? I can't.
- The Yankees' window for buying pennants has probably closed, anyway. As Joe Sheehan pointed out in a brilliant piece in his newsletter Thursday (subscription required, and it's worth it), top young stars hardly ever hit free agency in their prime anymore; their teams have them locked up. Think of Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki--all have long-term contracts with their teams. So even if they wanted to, the Yankees can't buy a pennant anymore by waiting for young stars to hit free agency after six years. So they need to keep core players like the one who just got away.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Robinson Cano, Piling On
Via Twitter, of course:
Cano signing this contract cements his status as the opening day DH for the 2024 Yankees.
— Cespedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 6, 2013
Robinson Cano, Future Ancient Mariner
The Seattle Mariners have signed former Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano to a ten-year, $240 million contract. Second base is a tough position. A lot of guys don't last long there. Among Hall of Famers, Rogers Hornsby's and Jackie Robinson's last full years at the position were at age 33. Roberto Alomar's was at 35. Rod Carew moved over to first when he was 30. A couple Yankees: Joe Gordon was 35 during his last season, and Tony Lazzeri played only 81 games past his 33rd birthday.
Cano will be 40 in the last year of his contract. Here's a list of players since 1901 who played 120 or more games at second at age 38 or more:
That's just nine players in baseball history: Craig Biggio, Kid Gleason, Jeff Kent, Nap Lajoie, Davey Lopes, Bobby Lowe, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Morgan, and Frank White. And of those, there were only five seasons (the first five listed above) in which the old guy at second was a decent offensive contributor.
Of course, this contract isn't about Cano's 2021-2023 seasons. It's about a Mariners team that was 12th of the 15 teams in the AL at run production adding the best-hitting second baseman in baseball to its lineup in 2014. Or, put another way, Seattle's second basemen posted a .214/.289/.330 slash line (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage). Cano's was .314/.383/.516. This is a big upgrade for a team with deep pockets. They have plenty of offensive holes elsewhere to fill, but this is a splashy start.
Cano will be 40 in the last year of his contract. Here's a list of players since 1901 who played 120 or more games at second at age 38 or more:
| Player | G | Year | Age | Tm | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Kent | .875 | 136 | 2007 | 39 | LAD | 494 | 78 | 149 | 36 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 57 | 61 | 1 | 3 | .302 | .375 | .500 |
| Joe Morgan | .838 | 134 | 1982 | 38 | SFG | 463 | 68 | 134 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 85 | 60 | 24 | 4 | .289 | .400 | .438 |
| Nap Lajoie | .802 | 137 | 1913 | 38 | CLE | 465 | 66 | 156 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 68 | 33 | 17 | 17 | .335 | .398 | .404 | |
| Craig Biggio | .792 | 155 | 2005 | 39 | HOU | 590 | 94 | 156 | 40 | 1 | 26 | 69 | 37 | 90 | 11 | 1 | .264 | .325 | .468 |
| Davey Lopes | .764 | 147 | 1983 | 38 | OAK | 494 | 64 | 137 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 67 | 51 | 61 | 22 | 4 | .277 | .341 | .423 |
| Craig Biggio | .727 | 145 | 2006 | 40 | HOU | 548 | 79 | 135 | 33 | 0 | 21 | 62 | 40 | 84 | 3 | 2 | .246 | .306 | .422 |
| Frank White | .635 | 135 | 1989 | 38 | KCR | 418 | 34 | 107 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 30 | 52 | 3 | 2 | .256 | .307 | .328 |
| Kid Gleason | .604 | 155 | 1905 | 38 | PHI | 608 | 95 | 150 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 50 | 45 | 45 | 16 | .247 | .302 | .303 | |
| Rabbit Maranville | .579 | 149 | 1932 | 40 | BSN | 571 | 67 | 134 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 46 | 28 | 4 | .235 | .295 | .284 | |
| Kid Gleason | .550 | 135 | 1906 | 39 | PHI | 494 | 47 | 112 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 36 | 29 | 17 | .227 | .281 | .269 | |
| Rabbit Maranville | .539 | 143 | 1933 | 41 | BSN | 478 | 46 | 104 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 2 | .218 | .274 | .266 | |
| Bobby Lowe | .494 | 141 | 1904 | 38 | TOT | 507 | 47 | 105 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 17 | 44 | 15 | .207 | .236 | .258 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/6/2013.
Of course, this contract isn't about Cano's 2021-2023 seasons. It's about a Mariners team that was 12th of the 15 teams in the AL at run production adding the best-hitting second baseman in baseball to its lineup in 2014. Or, put another way, Seattle's second basemen posted a .214/.289/.330 slash line (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage). Cano's was .314/.383/.516. This is a big upgrade for a team with deep pockets. They have plenty of offensive holes elsewhere to fill, but this is a splashy start.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)